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Home World UEFA Europa League Nottingham Forest — FC Porto

Match Nottingham Forest vs FC Porto April 16, 2026 — Result and Stats

Nottingham Forest
Nottingham Forest
Home · last 5 W D W W L
Kick-off
Thu 16 Apr · 19:00
1:0
Full-time
FC Porto
FC Porto
W W W D L Away · last 5
Referee Danny Makkelie, Netherlands
Miss
Away Win
Away Win
AI 54% · book 3.50
Miss
AH Away 0
AH Away 0
AI 54% · book 2.40
Miss
Double Chance X2
Double Chance X2
AI 78% · book 1.70
Total goals
1
1 · 0
xG (open play)
1.82 – 1.06
Δ +0.76
Possession
61% – 39%
AI accuracy
6 / 13
picks cashed
Post-match · 90 sec read

Nottingham Forest vs FC Porto looks far more favourable for the visitors than the market implies. Porto arrive with the stronger overall level, the better recent run and a much more reliable defensive platform, so they should be the side with more control over the key phases of the match. Forest have home advantage, but their wider performance level has been much less convincing and they may struggle to live with Porto if the visitors settle early.

The most likely script is Porto managing the game with greater maturity, limiting clear openings and creating the better chances over time. That points first toward the away side and the away-protection markets, while the goal shape leans more toward a controlled medium-scoring match than a chaotic shootout.

P Recap generated by AI · 6 markets graded

📊 Statistics

NOT 10 POR
61%
Possession (%)
39%
1.82
Expected Goals (xG) expected goals
1.06
20
Total Shots
10
5
Shots on Target
1
9
Shots off Target
6
11
Shots Inside Box
4
8
Corner Kicks
1
2
Offsides
0
16
Fouls
11
89%
Pass Accuracy (%)
77%
1
Yellow Cards
3
1
Goalkeeper Saves
4

Match recap

Nottingham Forest beat FC Porto 1–0 at home. At half-time it was 1–0.

In possession, the hosts ran the game with 61% of the ball. For accuracy, the hosts completed 89% of their passes. On the balance of chances, the hosts held the expected-goals edge, 1.82 to 1.06. In attack, the hosts carried the greater threat — 20 shots to 10, 5 on target. From set pieces, the hosts won the corner count, 8 to 1. At the back, the visitors leaned on their goalkeeper for 4 saves. For discipline, the referee produced 4 yellow cards.

Model audit for this match: of 13 graded markets, 6 landed and 7 missed, for a net -3.30 units (Brier 0.271).

Bet recap · markets settled

13 · 6 W · 7 L
Market Odds Closed AI Result P/L · 1u
Away Win 3.50 54% Lost −1.00 Miss
AH Away 0 2.40 54% Lost −1.00 Miss
Double Chance X2 1.70 78% Lost −1.00 Miss
Under 3.5 1.30 74% Cashed +0.30 Cashed
Under 2.5 1.70 56% Cashed +0.70 Cashed
BTTS No 1.90 54% Cashed +0.90 Cashed
Over 1.5 1.40 70% Lost −1.00 Miss
Over 0.5 1.10 90% Cashed +0.10 Cashed
Draw 3.40 24% Lost −1.00 Miss
BTTS Yes 2.00 46% Lost −1.00 Miss
Over 2.5 2.30 44% Lost −1.00 Miss
Double Chance 1X 1.40 46% Cashed +0.40 Cashed
Home Win 2.30 22% Cashed +1.30 Cashed
Total · 13 markets @ 1u each 6 W · 7 L −3.30u −25% ROI