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Home Switzerland Super League FC Lugano — FC Thun

Predictions FC Lugano vs FC Thun April 4, 2026 — Predictions and Probabilities

Switzerland   /   Super League Value pick inside
FC Lugano
FC Lugano
Home · last 5 W W L D W
Kick-off
Sat 04 Apr · 16:00
1:0
Full-time
FC Thun
FC Thun
L L L L D Away · last 5
Stadio di Cornaredo · Lugano Referee J. von Mandach
Home Win · LUG
27%
Best 2.45
Draw
24%
Best 3.56
Away Win · THU
48%
Best 2.62
Value pick
BTTS No
@ 2.50
Fair odds
2.31
book 2.50 · +8.1% vs market
Bookmakers polled
4
distinct bookmakers
Pick confidence
Medium
p 43% · EV +8.1%

Value pick isn't the most likely outcome — BTTS Yes is more likely (57%), but BTTS No is priced above the model's fair odds.

Match predictions

Simple model predictions for the main markets. Advanced model details are available below.

Most likely outcomes show what the model expects to happen. A betting pick also considers bookmaker prices, so it can differ from the most likely outcome.

Estimated probability — model's view. Implied probability — back-solved from the best book price. Bet quality: High Medium Low
FT Results 3 markets
Away Win Best in group
Probability 48.4%
Odds 2.44
Show model details
Implied probability 41%
Bet quality Medium
Home Win
Probability 27.4%
Odds 2.77
Show model details
Implied probability 36.1%
Bet quality Low
Draw
Probability 24.3%
Odds 3.80
Show model details
Implied probability 26.3%
Bet quality Low
Totals 8 markets
Under 2.5
Probability 44.9%
Odds 2.35
Show model details
Implied probability 42.6%
Bet quality Medium
Over 2.5
Probability 55.1%
Odds 1.61
Show model details
Implied probability 62.1%
Bet quality Low
Over 3.5
Probability 33.5%
Odds 2.50
Show model details
Implied probability 40%
Bet quality Low
Under 1.5
Probability 22.1%
Odds 4.84
Show model details
Implied probability 20.7%
Bet quality Medium
Under 3.5
Probability 66.5%
Odds 1.55
Show model details
Implied probability 64.5%
Bet quality Low
Under 0.5
Probability 6.6%
Odds 15.00
Show model details
Implied probability 6.7%
Bet quality Low
Over 0.5 Best in group
Probability 93.4%
Odds 1.04
Show model details
Implied probability 96.2%
Bet quality Low
Over 1.5
Probability 77.9%
Odds 1.19
Show model details
Implied probability 84%
Bet quality Low
BTTS 2 markets
BTTS No
Probability 43.3%
Odds 2.50
Show model details
Implied probability 40%
Bet quality Medium
BTTS Yes Best in group
Probability 56.7%
Odds 1.53
Show model details
Implied probability 65.4%
Bet quality Low
Asian Handicap 2 markets
AH Away 0 Best in group
Probability 48.4%
Odds 1.82
Show model details
Implied probability 55%
Bet quality Low
AH Home 0
Probability 27.4%
Odds 2.08
Show model details
Implied probability 48.1%
Bet quality Low
Other Markets 2 markets
Double Chance 1X
Probability 51.6%
Odds 1.60
Show model details
Implied probability 62.5%
Bet quality Low
Double Chance X2 Top pick
Probability 72.7%
Odds 1.47
Show model details
Implied probability 68%
Bet quality Medium

Predictions are model estimates based on data, not guaranteed outcomes. 18+ — please play responsibly.

Value pick of the night · BTTS No
LUG – THU @ 2.50
+8.1%
Edge
Forecast →