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Home › Belgium › Jupiler Pro League › OH Leuven — Standard Liege

OH Leuven vs Standard Liege 1:3: Match Review & Stats

Belgium   /   Jupiler Pro League Value pick inside
OH Leuven
OH Leuven
Home · last 5 D L W D L
Kick-off
Sat 04 Apr · 16:15
1:3
Full-time
Standard Liege
Standard Liege
W W D W L Away · last 5
Referee Bert Verbeke, Netherlands
Miss
BTTS No
BTTS No
AI 56% · book 1.96 ✗
Miss
Under 2.5
Under 2.5
AI 60% · book 1.80 ✗
Miss
Home Win
Home Win
AI 48% · book 2.12 ✗
Total goals
4
1 · 3
xG (open play)
1.06 – 2.02
Δ −0.96
Possession
55% – 45%
AI accuracy
8 / 17
picks cashed

Model verdict

Post-match · 90 sec read

AI picks BTTS No at 1.96 — +9.3% better than the market.

OH Leuven holds a slight quality edge and benefits from a moderate home advantage, suggesting a competitive clash. Their offensive play matches well against Standard Liege's defense, while the visitors' attack faces a tougher challenge. Recent form favors Leuven slightly, with sharper finishing and a more dynamic approach. Expect a measured tempo with a compact defensive setup from both sides, hinting at a low-scoring encounter.

  • Home momentum and attacking edge
  • Solid defensive structures
  • Balanced pace with limited goal opportunities

P Recap generated by AI · 6 markets graded
Pick of the night · settled · BTTS No
BTTS No @ 1.96 ✗ Lost
AI 56% Implied 51% −1.00u
−100%
ROI on stake

Statistics

LEU 1 – 3 STA
55%
Possession (%)
45%
1.06
Expected Goals (xG) expected goals
2.02
14
Total Shots
12
4
Shots on Target
7
5
Shots off Target
2
11
Shots Inside Box
10
7
Corner Kicks
4
3
Offsides
1
7
Fouls
12
77%
Pass Accuracy (%)
73%
4
Goalkeeper Saves
3

Match recap

Standard Liege won 3–1 away at OH Leuven. At half-time it was 0–0.

In possession, the hosts ran the game with 55% of the ball. On the balance of chances, the visitors held the expected-goals edge, 2.02 to 1.06. From set pieces, the hosts won the corner count, 7 to 4.

Model audit for this match: of 17 graded markets, 8 landed and 9 missed, for a net +1.17 units (Brier 0.311).

Bet recap · markets settled

17 · 8 W · 9 L
Market Odds Closed AI Result P/L · 1u
BTTS No 1.96 — 56% Lost −1.00 Miss
Under 2.5 1.80 — 60% Lost −1.00 Miss
Home Win 2.12 — 48% Lost −1.00 Miss
Double Chance X2 1.80 — 52% Cashed +0.80 Cashed
BTTS Yes 1.91 — 44% Cashed +0.91 Cashed
Over 2.5 2.08 — 40% Cashed +1.08 Cashed
AH Away 0 2.58 — 26% Cashed +1.58 Cashed
Under 1.5 3.45 — 34% Lost −1.00 Miss
Double Chance 1X 1.32 — 74% Lost −1.00 Miss
AH Home 0 1.50 — 48% Lost −1.00 Miss
Under 0.5 9.50 — 11% Lost −1.00 Miss
Under 3.5 1.30 — 80% Lost −1.00 Miss
Over 0.5 1.08 — 89% Cashed +0.08 Cashed
Away Win 3.60 — 26% Cashed +2.60 Cashed
Over 1.5 1.37 — 66% Cashed +0.37 Cashed
Draw 3.45 — 26% Lost −1.00 Miss
Over 3.5 3.75 — 20% Cashed +2.75 Cashed
Total · 17 markets @ 1u each — — — 8 W · 9 L +1.17u +7% ROI
Value pick of the night · BTTS No
LEU – STA @ 1.96
+9.3%
Edge
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