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Home World UEFA Europa League FC Midtjylland — Nottingham Forest

Match FC Midtjylland vs Nottingham Forest March 19, 2026 — Result and Stats

Europe   /   UEFA Europa League Value pick inside
FC Midtjylland
FC Midtjylland
Home · last 5 W D W W L
Kick-off
Thu 19 Mar · 17:45
1:2
Full-time
Nottingham Forest
Nottingham Forest
W D W W L Away · last 5
Referee Felix Zwayer, Germany
Hit
Over 2.5
Over 2.5
AI 61% · book 1.84
Miss
AH Home 0
AH Home 0
AI 56% · book 2.61
Miss
Double Chance 1X
Double Chance 1X
AI 80% · book 1.82
Total goals
3
1 · 2
xG (open play)
0.67 – 2.03
Δ −1.36
Possession
52% – 48%
AI accuracy
8 / 16
picks cashed
Post-match · 90 sec read

AI picks Over 2.5 at 1.84 — +12.0% better than the market.

FC Midtjylland vs Nottingham Forest looks far more balanced than the market suggests, and the home side has a stronger football case than the prices imply. Midtjylland come into this with much better momentum, a sharper attacking edge and a far more convincing overall profile, especially in the way they turn pressure into goals. Forest still have enough quality to stay dangerous, but their recent rhythm has been poor and they have looked less secure when the game becomes stretched.

The most likely match script is an open contest with chances for both teams, yet the home side appear better placed to take control of the decisive moments. Midtjylland should be competitive from the start and have a real chance to win outright rather than simply survive. That makes the home result markets stand out most, while the goal markets also lean toward a game with action at both ends rather than a flat, low-event affair.

P Recap generated by AI · 6 markets graded
Pick of the night · settled · Over 2.5
Over 2.5 @ 1.84 ✓ Cashed
AI 61% Implied 54% +0.84u
+84%
ROI on stake

📊 Statistics

MID 12 NOT
52%
Possession (%)
48%
0.67
Expected Goals (xG) expected goals
2.03
12
Total Shots
20
3
Shots on Target
8
6
Shots off Target
9
7
Shots Inside Box
13
4
Corner Kicks
11
1
Offsides
5
22
Fouls
16
74%
Pass Accuracy (%)
76%
4
Yellow Cards
2
7
Goalkeeper Saves
2

Match recap

Nottingham Forest won 2–1 away at FC Midtjylland. At half-time it was 0–1.

On the balance of chances, the visitors held the expected-goals edge, 2.03 to 0.67. In attack, the visitors carried the greater threat — 20 shots to 12, 8 on target. From set pieces, the visitors won the corner count, 11 to 4. At the back, the hosts leaned on their goalkeeper for 7 saves. For discipline, the referee produced 6 yellow cards.

Model audit for this match: of 16 graded markets, 8 landed and 8 missed, for a net -3.75 units (Brier 0.240).

Bet recap · markets settled

16 · 8 W · 8 L
Market Odds Closed AI Result P/L · 1u
Over 2.5 1.84 61% Cashed +0.84 Cashed
AH Home 0 2.61 56% Lost −1.00 Miss
Double Chance 1X 1.82 80% Lost −1.00 Miss
BTTS Yes 1.65 66% Cashed +0.65 Cashed
Over 3.5 3.00 38% Lost −1.00 Miss
Over 1.5 1.26 78% Cashed +0.26 Cashed
Home Win 3.64 56% Lost −1.00 Miss
Over 0.5 1.05 93% Cashed +0.05 Cashed
Under 3.5 1.44 62% Cashed +0.44 Cashed
Under 2.5 2.11 39% Lost −1.00 Miss
BTTS No 2.30 34% Lost −1.00 Miss
Under 1.5 4.10 22% Lost −1.00 Miss
Draw 3.80 24% Lost −1.00 Miss
Away Win 2.17 20% Cashed +1.17 Cashed
AH Away 0 1.51 20% Cashed +0.51 Cashed
Double Chance X2 1.33 44% Cashed +0.33 Cashed
Total · 16 markets @ 1u each 8 W · 8 L −3.75u −23% ROI
Value pick of the night · Over 2.5
MID – NOT @ 1.84
+12.0%
Edge
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