Tottenham vs Atletico Madrid looks like a competitive European tie, but the away side carry the stronger overall edge. Tottenham still have enough attacking quality to create danger at home, yet their recent rhythm is unstable and they look more vulnerable when the game becomes physical or stretched. Atletico Madrid arrive in far better form, defend with more control and carry the more reliable balance across both boxes. The most likely script is a tight but lively match with goals still in play, while the visitors look better equipped to handle the key moments and come away with the stronger result.
Post-match · 90 sec read
⛀ Lineups
TOT 4-2-3-1 · ATM 4-4-2📊 Statistics
TOT 3 – 2 ATM51%
Possession (%)
49%
2.44
Expected Goals (xG)
expected goals
1.04
18
Total Shots
18
11
Shots on Target
6
1
Shots off Target
3
12
Shots Inside Box
10
7
Corner Kicks
7
1
Offsides
3
16
Fouls
8
83%
Pass Accuracy (%)
83%
4
Yellow Cards
3
5
Goalkeeper Saves
8
Match recap
Tottenham beat Atletico Madrid 3–2 at home. At half-time it was 1–0.
On the balance of chances, the hosts held the expected-goals edge, 2.44 to 1.04. At the back, the visitors leaned on their goalkeeper for 8 saves. For discipline, the referee produced 7 yellow cards.
Model audit for this match: of 17 graded markets, 9 landed and 8 missed, for a net -0.80 units (Brier 0.237).
⚖ Bet recap · markets settled
17 · 9 W · 8 L| Market | Odds | Closed | AI | Result | P/L · 1u | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| BTTS Yes | 1.60 | — | 58% | Cashed | +0.60 | Cashed |
| Away Win | 2.60 | — | 43% | Lost | −1.00 | Miss |
| AH Away 0 | 2.00 | — | 61% | Lost | −1.00 | Miss |
| Double Chance X2 | 1.50 | — | 72% | Lost | −1.00 | Miss |
| Over 2.5 | 1.80 | — | 55% | Cashed | +0.80 | Cashed |
| Over 1.5 | 1.20 | — | 78% | Cashed | +0.20 | Cashed |
| Under 3.5 | 1.50 | — | 67% | Lost | −1.00 | Miss |
| Draw | 4.20 | — | 27% | Lost | −1.00 | Miss |
| Home Win | 2.70 | — | 30% | Cashed | +1.70 | Cashed |
| Double Chance 1X | 1.60 | — | 57% | Cashed | +0.60 | Cashed |
| AH Home 0 | 2.00 | — | 39% | Cashed | +1.00 | Cashed |
| BTTS No | 2.40 | — | 42% | Lost | −1.00 | Miss |
| Under 2.5 | 2.20 | — | 45% | Lost | −1.00 | Miss |
| AH Home +1 | 1.30 | — | 73% | Cashed | +0.30 | Cashed |
| Over 3.5 | 2.90 | — | 33% | Cashed | +1.90 | Cashed |
| Under 1.5 | 4.50 | — | 22% | Lost | −1.00 | Miss |
| Over 0.5 | 1.10 | — | 94% | Cashed | +0.10 | Cashed |
| Total · 17 markets @ 1u each | — | — | — | 9 W · 8 L | −0.80u | −5% ROI |