Chelsea enter this match with a clear home advantage and stronger recent form compared to Brighton, who have struggled to maintain consistency on the road. Chelsea’s attacking potential and defensive solidity at Stamford Bridge suggest they are the favorites to secure the win. Brighton’s defensive vulnerabilities and lower scoring output away from home increase the likelihood of Chelsea controlling the game. The model favors a moderately open contest with goals from both sides, but Chelsea’s edge should be decisive. Key angles include backing Chelsea to win and the match to feature over 2.5 goals, with additional value in Chelsea’s Asian Handicap options and double chance on Chelsea or draw for a safer approach.
Post-match · 90 sec read
⛀ Lineups
CHE 4-3-3 · BRI 4-2-3-1📊 Statistics
CHE 1 – 3 BRI60%
Possession (%)
40%
1.34
Expected Goals (xG)
expected goals
2.01
13
Total Shots
12
3
Shots on Target
3
4
Shots off Target
7
7
Shots Inside Box
8
5
Corner Kicks
7
2
Offsides
2
9
Fouls
16
84%
Pass Accuracy (%)
84%
4
Yellow Cards
5
0
Goalkeeper Saves
2
⏱ Match events
22 · 1 – 39'
▮
Joël Veltman
Yellow Card
Enzo Fernández
1–0
24'
Marc Cucurella
Yellow Card
42'
Half-time · 1 – 0
Trevoh Chalobah
Red Card
53'
Josh Acheampong ↓ · Andrey Santos ↑
Substitution 1
54'
55'
⇄
Mats Wieffer ↓ · Joël Veltman ↑
Substitution 1
Malo Gusto ↓ · Estêvão Willian ↑
Substitution 2
63'
64'
▮
Mats Wieffer
Yellow Card
Reece James
Yellow Card
66'
67'
⇄
Brajan Gruda ↓ · Carlos Baleba ↑
Substitution 2
67'
⇄
Danny Welbeck ↓ · Kaoru Mitoma ↑
Substitution 3
77'
⚽
Danny Welbeck
Assist · Yankuba Minteh · 1–1
Roméo Lavia ↓ · Pedro Neto ↑
Substitution 3
79'
Benoît Badiashile ↓ · Jorrel Hato ↑
Substitution 4
79'
85'
⇄
Stefanos Tzimas ↓ · Georginio Rutter ↑
Substitution 4
85'
⇄
Maxim De Cuyper ↓ · Diego Gómez ↑
Substitution 5
Benoît Badiashile
Yellow Card
89'
89'
▮
Jan Paul van Hecke
Yellow Card
90'
▮
Lewis Dunk
Yellow Card
90+2'
⚽
Maxim De Cuyper
Assist · Mats Wieffer · 1–2
90+10'
⚽
Danny Welbeck
Assist · Brajan Gruda · 1–3
90+11'
▮
Danny Welbeck
Yellow Card
Full-time · 1 – 3
Match recap
Brighton won 3–1 away at Chelsea. At half-time it was 1–0.
In possession, the hosts ran the game with 60% of the ball. On the balance of chances, the visitors held the expected-goals edge, 2.01 to 1.34. For discipline, the referee produced 9 yellow cards.
On the scoresheet: Enzo Fernández (24'), Danny Welbeck (77'), Danny Welbeck (90+10'), Maxim De Cuyper (90+2'). Trevoh Chalobah was sent off in the 53' minute.
Model audit for this match: of 8 graded markets, 4 landed and 4 missed, for a net +0.92 units (Brier 0.319).
⚖ Bet recap · markets settled
8 · 4 W · 4 L| Market | Odds | Closed | AI | Result | P/L · 1u | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Over 2.5 | 1.67 | — | 55% | Cashed | +0.67 | Cashed |
| BTTS Yes | 1.62 | — | 60% | Cashed | +0.62 | Cashed |
| AH Home 0 | 1.36 | — | 70% | Lost | −1.00 | Miss |
| Double Chance 1X | 1.25 | — | 80% | Lost | −1.00 | Miss |
| Home Team Total Over 0.5 | 1.13 | — | 85% | Cashed | +0.13 | Cashed |
| Home Win | 1.82 | — | 59% | Lost | −1.00 | Miss |
| Draw | 4.10 | — | 22% | Lost | −1.00 | Miss |
| Away Win | 4.50 | — | 20% | Cashed | +3.50 | Cashed |
| Total · 8 markets @ 1u each | — | — | — | 4 W · 4 L | +0.92u | +12% ROI |