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Home World UEFA Champions League Real Madrid — Benfica

Match Real Madrid vs Benfica February 25, 2026 — Result and Stats

Real Madrid
Real Madrid
Home · last 5 W W W L L
Kick-off
Wed 25 Feb · 20:00
2:1
Full-time
Benfica
Benfica
W L W L L Away · last 5
Referee Slavko Vinčić, Slovenia
Hit
Over 2.5
Over 2.5
AI 60% · book 1.50
Miss
Under 2.5
Under 2.5
AI 40% · book 2.80
Miss
Draw
Draw
AI 20% · book 5.10
Total goals
3
2 · 1
xG (open play)
1.11 – 1.98
Δ −0.87
Possession
56% – 44%
AI accuracy
7 / 13
picks cashed
Post-match · 90 sec read
Real Madrid vs Benfica prediction
Real Madrid should have the edge at home: they can sustain pressure, create clearer chances, and usually find a way through when matches open up. Benfica are in good shape and can hurt teams on the break, but they may spend long stretches defending deeper than they want. The game profile points to goals being more likely than a slow, low-event contest, while Benfica’s best route is to keep it close rather than chase it early.
P Recap generated by AI · 6 markets graded

📊 Statistics

REA 21 BEN
56%
Possession (%)
44%
1.11
Expected Goals (xG) expected goals
1.98
14
Total Shots
12
4
Shots on Target
4
6
Shots off Target
3
10
Shots Inside Box
8
4
Corner Kicks
7
2
Offsides
0
16
Fouls
10
90%
Pass Accuracy (%)
86%
2
Yellow Cards
2
4
Goalkeeper Saves
2

Match recap

Real Madrid beat Benfica 2–1 at home. At half-time it was 1–1.

In possession, the hosts ran the game with 56% of the ball. On the balance of chances, the visitors held the expected-goals edge, 1.98 to 1.11. From set pieces, the visitors won the corner count, 7 to 4. At the back, the hosts leaned on their goalkeeper for 4 saves. For discipline, the referee produced 4 yellow cards.

Model audit for this match: of 13 graded markets, 7 landed and 6 missed, for a net -3.20 units (Brier 0.120).

Bet recap · markets settled

13 · 7 W · 6 L
Market Odds Closed AI Result P/L · 1u
Over 2.5 1.50 60% Cashed +0.50 Cashed
Under 2.5 2.80 40% Lost −1.00 Miss
Draw 5.10 20% Lost −1.00 Miss
Away Win 6.80 16% Lost −1.00 Miss
BTTS No 2.40 42% Lost −1.00 Miss
Over 3.5 2.30 44% Lost −1.00 Miss
BTTS Yes 1.70 58% Cashed +0.70 Cashed
Under 3.5 1.70 56% Cashed +0.70 Cashed
Over 1.5 1.10 82% Cashed +0.10 Cashed
Double Chance 1X 1.10 84% Cashed +0.10 Cashed
Home Win 1.50 64% Cashed +0.50 Cashed
AH Home 0 1.20 64% Cashed +0.20 Cashed
AH Home -1 1.70 34% Lost −1.00 Miss
Total · 13 markets @ 1u each 7 W · 6 L −3.20u −25% ROI