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Home › Germany › Germany Bundesliga › SC Freiburg — Hamburger SV

SC Freiburg vs Hamburger SV 2:1: Match Review & Stats

Germany   /   Germany Bundesliga Value pick inside
SC Freiburg
SC Freiburg
Home · last 5 W L D L W
Kick-off
Sat 10 Jan · 14:30
2:1
Full-time
Hamburger SV
Hamburger SV
L L W W D Away · last 5
Europa-Park-Stadion · Freiburg Referee Timo Gerach, Germany
Hit
Home Win
Home Win
AI 61% · book 1.85 ✓
Miss
BTTS No
BTTS No
AI 47% · book 2.15 ✗
Miss
Under 2.5
Under 2.5
AI 48% · book 2.07 ✗
Total goals
3
2 · 1
xG (open play)
2.83 – 0.64
Δ +2.19
Possession
60% – 40%
AI accuracy
8 / 17
picks cashed

Model verdict

Post-match · 90 sec read

AI picks Home Win at 1.85 — +12.1% better than the market.

SC Freiburg enters this Bundesliga clash with a clear quality edge and strong home momentum, boasting a solid attacking threat against Hamburger SV's defense. Their recent form shows resilience, while HSV's away struggles and lower offensive output suggest Freiburg can control the tempo. Expect a compact home block and effective pressing to limit HSV's chances.

  • Home advantage with sharper attack
  • Freiburg's stable form vs HSV's inconsistency
  • Moderate pace hinted by balanced goal odds

P Recap generated by AI · 6 markets graded
Pick of the night · settled · Home Win
Home Win @ 1.85 ✓ Cashed
AI 61% Implied 54% +0.85u
+85%
ROI on stake

Lineups

FRE 4-2-3-1 · HAM 3-4-3
FRE · 4-2-3-1 3-4-3 · HAM 1 Atubolu 17 Kübler 28 Ginter 3 Lienhart 30 Günter 8 Eggestein 44 Manzambi 29 Treu 14 Suzuki 32 Grifo ⚽ 9 Höler 1 Fernandes 24 Capaldo 44 Vušković ⚽ 8 Elfadli 18 Jatta 6 Lokonga 21 Remberg 28 Muheim 20 Vieira 19 Downs 7 Dompé
Subs used · FRE
46' Jung ↑ · Lienhart ↓
65' Osterhage ↑ · Grifo ↓
65' Matanovic ↑ · Holer ↓
79' Beste ↑ · Treu ↓
90+4' Hofler ↑ · Manzambi ↓
Subs used · HAM
57' Torunarigha ↑ · Dompe ↓
78' Gocholeishvili ↑ · Jatta ↓
78' Rossing-Lelesiit ↑ · Downs ↓
79' Ramos ↑ · Vieira ↓
90+2' Konigsdorffer ↑ · S. Lokonga ↓

Statistics

FRE 2 – 1 HAM
60%
Possession (%)
40%
2.83
Expected Goals (xG) expected goals
0.64
20
Total Shots
10
7
Shots on Target
5
7
Shots off Target
5
14
Shots Inside Box
5
0
Corner Kicks
3
1
Offsides
0
13
Fouls
11
83%
Pass Accuracy (%)
76%
3
Yellow Cards
5
5
Goalkeeper Saves
5

Match events

22 · 2 – 1
4'
▮
Daniel Elfadli
Yellow Card
Philipp Treu
Yellow Card
▮
39'
Philipp Lienhart
Yellow Card
▮
43'
Half-time · 0 – 0
A. Jung ↓ · P. Lienhart ↑
Substitution 1
⇄
46'
48'
⚽
L. Vuskovic
Assist · M. Muheim · 0–1
51'
▮
Daniel Elfadli
Yellow Card
51'
▮
Daniel Elfadli
Red Card
V. Grifo (P)
Penalty · 1–1
⚽
53'
57'
⇄
J. Torunarigha ↓ · J. Dompe ↑
Substitution 1
63'
▮
Luka Vušković
Yellow Card
P. Osterhage ↓ · V. Grifo ↑
Substitution 2
⇄
65'
I. Matanovic ↓ · L. Holer ↑
Substitution 3
⇄
65'
77'
▮
Daniel Heuer Fernandes
Yellow Card
78'
⇄
G. Gocholeishvili ↓ · B. Jatta ↑
Substitution 2
78'
⇄
A. Rossing-Lelesiit ↓ · D. Downs ↑
Substitution 3
J. Beste ↓ · P. Treu ↑
Substitution 4
⇄
79'
79'
⇄
G. Ramos ↓ · F. Vieira ↑
Substitution 4
I. Matanovic
Assist · J. Beste · 2–1
⚽
83'
90+2'
⇄
R. Konigsdorffer ↓ · A. S. Lokonga ↑
Substitution 5
N. Hofler ↓ · J. Manzambi ↑
Substitution 5
⇄
90+4'
Patrick Osterhage
Yellow Card
▮
90+7'
90+12'
▮
Alexander Røssing-Lelesiit
Yellow Card
Full-time · 2 – 1

Match recap

SC Freiburg beat Hamburger SV 2–1 at home. At half-time it was 0–0.

In possession, the hosts ran the game with 60% of the ball. On the balance of chances, the hosts held the expected-goals edge, 2.83 to 0.64. In attack, the hosts carried the greater threat — 20 shots to 10, 7 on target. From set pieces, the visitors won the corner count, 3 to 0. For discipline, the referee produced 8 yellow cards.

On the scoresheet: L. Vuskovic (48'), V. Grifo (53'), I. Matanovic (83'). Daniel Elfadli was sent off in the 51' minute.

Model audit for this match: of 17 graded markets, 8 landed and 9 missed, for a net -5.16 units (Brier 0.106).

Bet recap · markets settled

17 · 8 W · 9 L
Market Odds Closed AI Result P/L · 1u
Home Win 1.85 — 61% Cashed +0.85 Cashed
BTTS No 2.15 — 47% Lost −1.00 Miss
Under 2.5 2.07 — 48% Lost −1.00 Miss
Over 2.5 1.88 — 52% Cashed +0.88 Cashed
BTTS Yes 1.75 — 53% Cashed +0.75 Cashed
Double Chance X2 2.08 — 39% Lost −1.00 Miss
Double Chance 1X 1.23 — 85% Cashed +0.23 Cashed
Under 3.5 1.42 — 70% Cashed +0.42 Cashed
Over 3.5 3.20 — 30% Lost −1.00 Miss
AH Home 0 1.38 — 61% Cashed +0.38 Cashed
Over 0.5 1.06 — 93% Cashed +0.06 Cashed
Under 1.5 4.10 — 24% Lost −1.00 Miss
Over 1.5 1.27 — 76% Cashed +0.27 Cashed
Draw 3.76 — 25% Lost −1.00 Miss
Under 0.5 12.00 — 7% Lost −1.00 Miss
Away Win 4.95 — 15% Lost −1.00 Miss
AH Away 0 3.62 — 15% Lost −1.00 Miss
Total · 17 markets @ 1u each — — — 8 W · 9 L −5.16u −30% ROI
Value pick of the night · Home Win
FRE – HAM @ 1.85
+12.1%
Edge
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