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Home World UEFA Champions League Benfica — Real Madrid

Predictions Benfica vs Real Madrid February 17, 2026 — Predictions and Probabilities

Benfica
Benfica
Home · last 5 W L W L L
Kick-off
Tue 17 Feb · 20:00
0:1
Full-time
Real Madrid
Real Madrid
W W W L L Away · last 5
Referee François Letexier, France
Home Win · BEN
30%
Best 3.15
VALUE
Draw
31%
Best 3.68
Away Win · REA
40%
Best 2.18
Model pick
Under 3.5
@ 1.59
Fair odds
1.52
book 1.59 · no edge vs market
Bookmakers polled
4
distinct bookmakers
Pick confidence
High
p 66%

Match predictions

Simple model predictions for the main markets. Advanced model details are available below.

Most likely outcomes show what the model expects to happen. A betting pick also considers bookmaker prices, so it can differ from the most likely outcome.

Estimated probability — model's view. Implied probability — back-solved from the best book price. Bet quality: High Medium Low
FT Results 3 markets
Draw Value pick
Probability 30.5%
Odds 4.09
Show model details
Implied probability 24.4%
Bet quality Medium
Home Win
Probability 30%
Odds 3.86
Show model details
Implied probability 25.9%
Bet quality Medium
Away Win Best in group
Probability 39.5%
Odds 1.99
Show model details
Implied probability 50.3%
Bet quality Medium
Totals 6 markets
Under 3.5
Probability 66%
Odds 1.59
Show model details
Implied probability 62.9%
Bet quality High
Under 2.5
Probability 43%
Odds 2.46
Show model details
Implied probability 40.7%
Bet quality Medium
Over 0.5 Top pick
Probability 94%
Odds 1.04
Show model details
Implied probability 96.2%
Bet quality High
Over 2.5
Probability 57%
Odds 1.65
Show model details
Implied probability 60.6%
Bet quality Medium
Over 1.5
Probability 78%
Odds 1.20
Show model details
Implied probability 83.3%
Bet quality High
Over 3.5
Probability 34%
Odds 2.50
Show model details
Implied probability 40%
Bet quality Low
BTTS 2 markets
BTTS No Value pick
Probability 46%
Odds 2.59
Show model details
Implied probability 38.6%
Bet quality Medium
BTTS Yes Top pick
Probability 54%
Odds 1.55
Show model details
Implied probability 64.5%
Bet quality Medium
Asian Handicap 3 markets
AH Home +1 Top pick
Probability 66%
Odds 1.55
Show model details
Implied probability 64.5%
Bet quality High
AH Home 0
Probability 30%
Odds 2.93
Show model details
Implied probability 34.1%
Bet quality Medium
AH Away 0
Probability 39.5%
Odds 1.45
Show model details
Implied probability 69%
Bet quality Medium
Other Markets 2 markets
Double Chance 1X Value pick
Probability 60.5%
Odds 1.97
Show model details
Implied probability 50.8%
Bet quality High
Double Chance X2 Top pick
Probability 70%
Odds 1.31
Show model details
Implied probability 76.3%
Bet quality High

Predictions are model estimates based on data, not guaranteed outcomes. 18+ — please play responsibly.