Italy won 2–0 away at Moldova. At half-time it was 0–0.
In possession, the visitors ran the game with 77% of the ball. For accuracy, the visitors completed 89% of their passes. In attack, the visitors carried the greater threat — 28 shots to 3, 9 on target. From set pieces, the visitors won the corner count, 13 to 1. At the back, the hosts leaned on their goalkeeper for 8 saves. For discipline, the referee produced 3 yellow cards.
Model audit for this match: of 14 graded markets, 9 landed and 5 missed, for a net -0.98 units (Brier 0.100).
| Market | Odds | Closed | AI | Result | P/L · 1u | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Under 3.5 | 1.98 | — | 55% | Cashed | +0.98 | Cashed |
| Draw | 17.00 | — | 10% | Lost | −1.00 | Miss |
| BTTS Yes | 3.65 | — | 32% | Lost | −1.00 | Miss |
| Under 2.5 | 3.40 | — | 32% | Cashed | +2.40 | Cashed |
| AH Away +1 | 1.07 | — | 95% | Cashed | +0.07 | Cashed |
| Over 0.5 | 1.02 | — | 98% | Cashed | +0.02 | Cashed |
| Away Win | 1.08 | — | 92% | Cashed | +0.08 | Cashed |
| Home Win | 76.00 | — | 10% | Lost | −1.00 | Miss |
| Double Chance X2 | 1.01 | — | 98% | Cashed | +0.01 | Cashed |
| Over 1.5 | 1.12 | — | 88% | Cashed | +0.12 | Cashed |
| AH Away 0 | 1.01 | — | 92% | Cashed | +0.01 | Cashed |
| BTTS No | 1.33 | — | 68% | Cashed | +0.33 | Cashed |
| Over 2.5 | 1.38 | — | 68% | Lost | −1.00 | Miss |
| Under 1.5 | 8.00 | — | 12% | Lost | −1.00 | Miss |
| Total · 14 markets @ 1u each | — | — | — | 9 W · 5 L | −0.98u | −7% ROI |
