Match FSV Mainz 05 vs FC St. Pauli December 21, 2025

Post-match · 90 sec read

AI picks Under 2.5 at 1.78 — +9.5% better than the market.

FSV Mainz 05 hosts FC St. Pauli in a Bundesliga clash where the visitors hold a slight quality edge and better recent form. Mainz’s defensive solidity faces a test against St. Pauli’s opportunistic attack, though both sides show signs of struggle in scoring. The home side’s compact block and set-piece threat might keep things tight, while St. Pauli’s pressing edge could create chances on the break. Expect a cautious tempo with limited goals under 2.5 likely.

St. Pauli’s form and defensive resilience
Mainz’s home defensive organization
Moderate pace suggested by odds and recent trends

P Recap generated by AI · 6 markets graded

Pick of the night · settled · Under 2.5

Under 2.5 @ 1.78 ✓ Cashed

AI 62% Implied 56% +0.78u

+78%

ROI on stake

⛀ Lineups

MAI 5-3-2 · PAU 3-4-1-2

MAI · 5-3-2 3-4-1-2 · PAU

10 Amiri

Subs used · MAI

78'

Sieb ↑ ·

Hollerbach ↓

79'

Veratschnig ↑ ·

Widmer ↓

90+1'

Weiper ↑ ·

Amiri ↓

Subs used · PAU

58'

Jones ↑ ·

Hountondji ↓

74'

Ritzka ↑ ·

Oppie ↓

90'

Sinani ↑ ·

Pereira Lage ↓

📊 Statistics

MAI 0 – 0 PAU

53%

Possession (%)

47%

1.03

Expected Goals (xG) expected goals

0.27

Total Shots

Shots on Target

Shots off Target

Shots Inside Box

Corner Kicks

Offsides

Fouls

77%

Pass Accuracy (%)

69%

Yellow Cards

Goalkeeper Saves

⏱ Match events

8 · 0 – 0

Kaishu Sano

Yellow Card

▮

32'

Half-time · 0 – 0

58'

⇄

R. Jones ↓ · A. Hountondji ↑

Substitution 1

61'

▮

Mathias Pereira Lage

Yellow Card

74'

⇄

L. Ritzka ↓ · L. Oppie ↑

Substitution 2

A. Sieb ↓ · B. Hollerbach ↑

Substitution 1

⇄

78'

N. Veratschnig ↓ · S. Widmer ↑

Substitution 2

⇄

79'

90'

⇄

D. Sinani ↓ · M. Pereira Lage ↑

Substitution 3

N. Weiper ↓ · N. Amiri ↑

Substitution 3

⇄

90+1'

Full-time · 0 – 0

Match recap

FSV Mainz 05 and FC St. Pauli drew 0–0. At half-time it was 0–0.

For accuracy, the hosts completed 77% of their passes. On the balance of chances, the hosts held the expected-goals edge, 1.03 to 0.27. In attack, the hosts carried the greater threat — 13 shots to 5, 1 on target. From set pieces, the hosts won the corner count, 9 to 5.

Model audit for this match: of 17 graded markets, 8 landed and 9 missed, for a net +7.36 units (Brier 0.266).

⚖ Bet recap · markets settled

17 · 8 W · 9 L

Market	Odds	Closed	AI	Result	P/L · 1u
Under 2.5	1.78	—	62%	Cashed	+0.78	Cashed
Double Chance X2	1.91	—	57%	Cashed	+0.91	Cashed
BTTS No	1.87	—	57%	Cashed	+0.87	Cashed
Home Win	2.01	—	43%	Lost	−1.00	Miss
BTTS Yes	1.98	—	43%	Lost	−1.00	Miss
Over 2.5	2.20	—	39%	Lost	−1.00	Miss
Under 1.5	3.20	—	36%	Cashed	+2.20	Cashed
Away Win	4.26	—	31%	Lost	−1.00	Miss
Under 3.5	1.30	—	81%	Cashed	+0.30	Cashed
AH Away 0	3.00	—	31%	Lost	−1.00	Miss
Over 1.5	1.40	—	64%	Lost	−1.00	Miss
Double Chance 1X	1.27	—	69%	Cashed	+0.27	Cashed
Under 0.5	9.50	—	12%	Cashed	+8.50	Cashed
Over 0.5	1.09	—	88%	Lost	−1.00	Miss
AH Home 0	1.43	—	43%	Lost	−1.00	Miss
Draw	3.53	—	26%	Cashed	+2.53	Cashed
Over 3.5	4.10	—	19%	Lost	−1.00	Miss
Total · 17 markets @ 1u each	—	—	—	8 W · 9 L	+7.36u	+43% ROI