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Home › Germany › Germany Bundesliga › FSV Mainz 05 — FC St. Pauli

Predictions by Market: FSV Mainz 05 vs FC St. Pauli

Germany   /   Germany Bundesliga Value pick inside
FSV Mainz 05
FSV Mainz 05
Home · last 5 D L W L W
Kick-off
Sun 21 Dec · 14:30
0:0
Full-time
FC St. Pauli
FC St. Pauli
D L L L L Away · last 5
MEWA Arena · Mainz Referee Matthias Jollenbeck, Germany

Outcome probabilities

Home Win · MAI
43%
Best 2.00
Draw
26%
Best 3.35
Away Win · PAU
31%
Best 3.98
Value pick
Under 1.5
@ 3.20
Fair odds
2.81
book 3.20 · +13.8% vs market
Bookmakers polled
4
distinct bookmakers
Pick confidence
Medium
p 36% · EV +13.8%

Value pick isn't the most likely outcome — Over 1.5 is more likely (64%), but Under 1.5 is priced above the model's fair odds.

Match predictions

Simple model predictions for the main markets. Advanced model details are available below.

Most likely outcomes show what the model expects to happen. A betting pick also considers bookmaker prices, so it can differ from the most likely outcome.

Estimated probability — model's view. Implied probability — back-solved from the best book price. Bet quality: High Medium Low
FT Results 3 markets
✓ Home Win Best in group
Probability 43.1%
Odds 2.01
Show model details
Implied probability 49.8%
Bet quality Low
✓ Away Win
Probability 31.2%
Odds 4.26
Show model details
Implied probability 23.5%
Bet quality Medium
✓ Draw
Probability 25.7%
Odds 3.53
Show model details
Implied probability 28.3%
Bet quality Low
Totals 8 markets
✓ Under 2.5 Value pick
Probability 61.5%
Odds 1.78
Show model details
Implied probability 56.2%
Bet quality High
✓ Over 2.5
Probability 38.5%
Odds 2.20
Show model details
Implied probability 45.5%
Bet quality Low
✓ Under 1.5
Probability 35.6%
Odds 3.20
Show model details
Implied probability 31.3%
Bet quality Medium
✓ Under 3.5
Probability 80.8%
Odds 1.30
Show model details
Implied probability 76.9%
Bet quality Medium
✓ Over 1.5
Probability 64.5%
Odds 1.40
Show model details
Implied probability 71.4%
Bet quality Low
✓ Under 0.5
Probability 11.8%
Odds 9.50
Show model details
Implied probability 10.5%
Bet quality Low
✓ Over 0.5 Best in group
Probability 88.3%
Odds 1.09
Show model details
Implied probability 91.7%
Bet quality Low
✓ Over 3.5
Probability 19.2%
Odds 4.10
Show model details
Implied probability 24.4%
Bet quality Low
BTTS 2 markets
✓ BTTS No Top pick
Probability 57.1%
Odds 1.87
Show model details
Implied probability 53.5%
Bet quality Medium
✓ BTTS Yes
Probability 42.9%
Odds 1.98
Show model details
Implied probability 50.5%
Bet quality Low
Asian Handicap 2 markets
✓ AH Away 0
Probability 31.2%
Odds 3.00
Show model details
Implied probability 33.3%
Bet quality Low
✓ AH Home 0 Best in group
Probability 43.1%
Odds 1.43
Show model details
Implied probability 69.9%
Bet quality Low
Other Markets 2 markets
✓ Double Chance X2
Probability 56.9%
Odds 1.91
Show model details
Implied probability 52.4%
Bet quality Medium
✓ Double Chance 1X Top pick
Probability 68.8%
Odds 1.27
Show model details
Implied probability 78.7%
Bet quality Medium

Predictions are model estimates based on data, not guaranteed outcomes. 18+ — please play responsibly.

Value pick of the night · Under 1.5
MAI – PAU @ 3.20
+13.8%
Edge
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