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Home › Germany › Germany Bundesliga › 1. FC Heidenheim — SC Freiburg

1. FC Heidenheim vs SC Freiburg 2:1: Match Review & Stats

Germany   /   Germany Bundesliga Value pick inside
1. FC Heidenheim
1. FC Heidenheim
Home · last 5 L W D W L
Kick-off
Sat 06 Dec · 14:30
2:1
Full-time
SC Freiburg
SC Freiburg
W L D L W Away · last 5
Voith-Arena · Heidenheim an der Brenz Referee Florian Exner, Germany
Miss
Away Win
Away Win
AI 57% · book 2.02 ✗
Miss
Under 2.5
Under 2.5
AI 55% · book 1.99 ✗
Miss
BTTS No
BTTS No
AI 51% · book 2.10 ✗
Total goals
3
2 · 1
xG (open play)
2.22 – 0.84
Δ +1.38
Possession
38% – 62%
AI accuracy
8 / 17
picks cashed

Model verdict

Post-match · 90 sec read

AI picks Under 1.5 at 3.82 — +12.2% better than the market.

SC Freiburg enters this clash with a clear quality edge and better recent form, suggesting they hold the upper hand. Their stronger offensive capabilities against Heidenheim's defense could unlock chances, while Heidenheim's home momentum is tempered by defensive vulnerabilities. The match may see a moderate tempo, with Freiburg likely to press and control possession.

  • Freiburg's attacking edge versus Heidenheim's defense
  • Home side's recent mixed form and defensive frailties
  • Moderate pace expected, favoring structured play

P Recap generated by AI · 6 markets graded
Pick of the night · settled · Under 1.5
Under 1.5 @ 3.82 ✗ Lost
AI 29% Implied 26% −1.00u
−100%
ROI on stake

Lineups

HEI 3-1-4-2 · FRE 4-2-3-1
HEI · 3-1-4-2 4-2-3-1 · FRE 41 Ramaj 27 Keller 6 Mainka ⚽ 5 Gimber 16 Niehues 2 Busch 3 Schöppner 30 Dorsch 19 Föhrenbach 18 Pieringer 17 Honsak 1 Atubolu 17 Kübler 28 Ginter 3 Lienhart 29 Treu 8 Eggestein 6 Osterhage 19 Beste 44 Manzambi ⚽ 32 Grifo 9 Höler
Subs used · HEI
46' Siersleben ↑ · Keller ↓
46' Ibrahimovic ↑ · Gimber ↓
70' Schimmer ↑ · Niehues ↓
83' H. Traore ↑ · Busch ↓
88' Kerber ↑ · Dorsch ↓
Subs used · FRE
46' Rosenfelder ↑ · Lienhart ↓
67' Suzuki ↑ · Manzambi ↓
67' Scherhant ↑ · Grifo ↓
71' Jung ↑
84' Gunter ↑ · Kubler ↓

Statistics

HEI 2 – 1 FRE
38%
Possession (%)
62%
2.22
Expected Goals (xG) expected goals
0.84
16
Total Shots
15
3
Shots on Target
2
8
Shots off Target
8
8
Shots Inside Box
9
8
Corner Kicks
6
1
Offsides
1
11
Fouls
10
74%
Pass Accuracy (%)
81%
2
Yellow Cards
1
1
Goalkeeper Saves
1

Match events

16 · 2 – 1
Thomas Keller
Yellow Card
▮
13'
Benedikt Gimber
Yellow Card
▮
37'
40'
⚽
J. Manzambi
Assist · P. Treu · 0–1
Half-time · 0 – 1
T. Siersleben ↓ · T. Keller ↑
Substitution 1
⇄
46'
A. Ibrahimovic ↓ · B. Gimber ↑
Substitution 2
⇄
46'
46'
⇄
M. Rosenfelder ↓ · P. Lienhart ↑
Substitution 1
P. Mainka
Assist · M. Busch · 1–1
⚽
59'
67'
⇄
Y. Suzuki ↓ · J. Manzambi ↑
Substitution 2
67'
⇄
D. Scherhant ↓ · V. Grifo ↑
Substitution 3
S. Schimmer ↓ · J. Niehues ↑
Substitution 3
⇄
70'
71'
⇄
A. Jung ↓ ·
Substitution 4
O. H. Traore ↓ · M. Busch ↑
Substitution 4
⇄
83'
84'
⇄
C. Gunter ↓ · L. Kubler ↑
Substitution 5
87'
▮
Anthony Jung
Yellow Card
L. Kerber ↓ · N. Dorsch ↑
Substitution 5
⇄
88'
S. Schimmer
2–1
⚽
90'
Full-time · 2 – 1

Match recap

1. FC Heidenheim beat SC Freiburg 2–1 at home. At half-time it was 0–1.

In possession, the visitors ran the game with 62% of the ball. On the balance of chances, the hosts held the expected-goals edge, 2.22 to 0.84. For discipline, the referee produced 3 yellow cards.

On the scoresheet: J. Manzambi (40'), P. Mainka (59'), S. Schimmer (90').

Model audit for this match: of 17 graded markets, 8 landed and 9 missed, for a net -0.53 units (Brier 0.264).

Bet recap · markets settled

17 · 8 W · 9 L
Market Odds Closed AI Result P/L · 1u
Away Win 2.02 — 57% Lost −1.00 Miss
Under 2.5 1.99 — 55% Lost −1.00 Miss
BTTS No 2.10 — 51% Lost −1.00 Miss
Over 2.5 1.95 — 45% Cashed +0.95 Cashed
BTTS Yes 1.78 — 49% Cashed +0.78 Cashed
Double Chance 1X 1.92 — 43% Cashed +0.92 Cashed
Under 1.5 3.82 — 29% Lost −1.00 Miss
Double Chance X2 1.29 — 82% Lost −1.00 Miss
AH Away 0 1.44 — 57% Lost −1.00 Miss
Under 0.5 11.70 — 9% Lost −1.00 Miss
Under 3.5 1.37 — 75% Cashed +0.37 Cashed
Over 0.5 1.06 — 91% Cashed +0.06 Cashed
Draw 3.70 — 25% Lost −1.00 Miss
Over 1.5 1.30 — 71% Cashed +0.30 Cashed
AH Home 0 2.99 — 18% Cashed +1.99 Cashed
Over 3.5 3.25 — 25% Lost −1.00 Miss
Home Win 4.10 — 18% Cashed +3.10 Cashed
Total · 17 markets @ 1u each — — — 8 W · 9 L −0.53u −3% ROI
Value pick of the night · Under 1.5
HEI – FRE @ 3.82
+12.2%
Edge
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