Bayern München vs FC St. Pauli 3:1

Post-match · 90 sec read

AI picks Double Chance X2 at 8.00 — +13.1% better than the market.

Bayern München enter this clash with strong home momentum, boasting a solid recent form and a clear quality edge over FC St. Pauli. Their potent attack faces a defense that has struggled, suggesting a high chance of goals. Bayern's pressing and tactical discipline should exploit St. Pauli's fragile away form, while the match pace hints at an open game with multiple scoring opportunities.

Home side's offensive firepower vs away defensive frailties
St. Pauli's poor recent results and low confidence
Bayern's home advantage and tactical control

P Recap generated by AI · 6 markets graded

Pick of the night · settled · Double Chance X2

Double Chance X2 @ 8.00 ✗ Lost

AI 14% Implied 13% −1.00u

−100%

ROI on stake

Lineups

BAY 4-2-3-1 · PAU 5-4-1

BAY · 4-2-3-1 5-4-1 · PAU

9 Kane

Subs used · BAY

46'

Olise ↑ ·

Laimer ↓

65'

Gnabry ↑ ·

Karl ↓

65'

Stanisic ↑ ·

Guerreiro ↓

77'

Goretzka ↑ ·

Min-Jae ↓

83'

Jackson ↑ ·

Pavlovic ↓

Subs used · PAU

18'

Sinani ↑ ·

Hountondji ↓

68'

Oppie ↑ ·

Ritzka ↓

68'

Ceesay ↑ ·

Irvine ↓

87'

Metcalfe ↑ ·

Pereira Lage ↓

Statistics

BAY 3 – 1 PAU

81%

Possession (%)

19%

2.68

Expected Goals (xG) expected goals

0.60

Total Shots

Shots on Target

Shots off Target

Shots Inside Box

Corner Kicks

Offsides

Fouls

93%

Pass Accuracy (%)

72%

Yellow Cards

Match events

15 · 3 – 1

⚽

A. Hountondji

Assist · M. Pereira Lage · 0–1

18'

⇄

D. Sinani ↓ · A. Hountondji ↑

Substitution 1

39'

▮

Karol Mets

Yellow Card

R. Guerreiro

Assist · L. Diaz · 1–1

⚽

44'

Half-time · 1 – 1

M. Olise ↓ · K. Laimer ↑

Substitution 1

⇄

46'

S. Gnabry ↓ · L. Karl ↑

Substitution 2

⇄

65'

J. Stanisic ↓ · R. Guerreiro ↑

Substitution 3

⇄

65'

68'

⇄

L. Oppie ↓ · L. Ritzka ↑

Substitution 2

68'

⇄

A. Ceesay ↓ · J. Irvine ↑

Substitution 3

L. Goretzka ↓ · Kim Min-Jae ↑

Substitution 4

⇄

77'

Jonathan Tah

Yellow Card

▮

83'

N. Jackson ↓ · A. Pavlovic ↑

Substitution 5

⇄

83'

87'

⇄

C. Metcalfe ↓ · M. Pereira Lage ↑

Substitution 4

L. Diaz

Assist · J. Kimmich · 2–1

⚽

90'

N. Jackson

3–1

⚽

90'

Full-time · 3 – 1

Match recap

Bayern München beat FC St. Pauli 3–1 at home. At half-time it was 1–1.

In possession, the hosts ran the game with 81% of the ball. For accuracy, the hosts completed 93% of their passes. On the balance of chances, the hosts held the expected-goals edge, 2.68 to 0.60. In attack, the hosts carried the greater threat — 19 shots to 10, 3 on target. From set pieces, the hosts won the corner count, 10 to 2.

On the scoresheet: A. Hountondji (6'), R. Guerreiro (44'), L. Diaz (90'), N. Jackson (90').

Model audit for this match: of 17 graded markets, 8 landed and 9 missed, for a net -6.52 units (Brier 0.070).

Bet recap · markets settled

17 · 8 W · 9 L

Market	Odds	Closed	AI	Result	P/L · 1u
BTTS Yes	2.15	—	48%	Cashed	+1.15	Cashed
Under 3.5	2.25	—	46%	Lost	−1.00	Miss
Over 3.5	1.77	—	54%	Cashed	+0.77	Cashed
BTTS No	1.75	—	52%	Lost	−1.00	Miss
Draw	11.00	—	12%	Lost	−1.00	Miss
Double Chance X2	8.00	—	14%	Lost	−1.00	Miss
Double Chance 1X	1.02	—	98%	Cashed	+0.02	Cashed
Home Win	1.13	—	86%	Cashed	+0.13	Cashed
AH Home 0	1.02	—	86%	Cashed	+0.02	Cashed
Under 1.5	10.00	—	10%	Lost	−1.00	Miss
Under 2.5	4.00	—	26%	Lost	−1.00	Miss
Over 0.5	1.02	—	97%	Cashed	+0.02	Cashed
Over 1.5	1.09	—	90%	Cashed	+0.09	Cashed
Over 2.5	1.28	—	74%	Cashed	+0.28	Cashed
Under 0.5	29.00	—	3%	Lost	−1.00	Miss
Away Win	30.06	—	2%	Lost	−1.00	Miss
AH Away 0	21.00	—	2%	Lost	−1.00	Miss
Total · 17 markets @ 1u each	—	—	—	8 W · 9 L	−6.52u	−38% ROI

Bayern München vs FC St. Pauli 3:1: Match Review & Stats

Model verdict

⛀ Lineups

📊 Statistics

⏱ Match events

Match recap

⚖ Bet recap · markets settled

Lineups

Statistics

Match events

Bet recap · markets settled