Aston Villa beat BSC Young Boys 2–1 at home. At half-time it was 2–0.
In possession, the hosts ran the game with 60% of the ball. On the balance of chances, the hosts held the expected-goals edge, 2.03 to 0.31. In attack, the hosts carried the greater threat — 19 shots to 6, 8 on target. From set pieces, the hosts won the corner count, 6 to 0. At the back, the visitors leaned on their goalkeeper for 6 saves. For discipline, the referee produced 3 yellow cards.
Model audit for this match: of 17 graded markets, 8 landed and 9 missed, for a net -6.23 units (Brier 0.084).
| Market | Odds | Closed | AI | Result | P/L · 1u | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| BTTS No | 1.90 | — | 53% | Lost | −1.00 | Miss |
| Draw | 7.62 | — | 16% | Lost | −1.00 | Miss |
| Double Chance X2 | 4.90 | — | 28% | Lost | −1.00 | Miss |
| AH Away 0 | 11.50 | — | 14% | Lost | −1.00 | Miss |
| Over 2.5 | 1.40 | — | 70% | Cashed | +0.40 | Cashed |
| Over 3.5 | 2.07 | — | 45% | Lost | −1.00 | Miss |
| Over 1.5 | 1.13 | — | 87% | Cashed | +0.13 | Cashed |
| BTTS Yes | 2.00 | — | 47% | Cashed | +1.00 | Cashed |
| Away Win | 14.50 | — | 12% | Lost | −1.00 | Miss |
| Double Chance 1X | 1.06 | — | 88% | Cashed | +0.06 | Cashed |
| Home Win | 1.24 | — | 72% | Cashed | +0.24 | Cashed |
| Over 0.5 | 1.02 | — | 97% | Cashed | +0.02 | Cashed |
| AH Home 0 | 1.04 | — | 86% | Cashed | +0.04 | Cashed |
| Under 3.5 | 1.88 | — | 55% | Cashed | +0.88 | Cashed |
| Under 2.5 | 3.11 | — | 30% | Lost | −1.00 | Miss |
| Under 1.5 | 6.75 | — | 13% | Lost | −1.00 | Miss |
| Under 0.5 | 26.00 | — | 4% | Lost | −1.00 | Miss |
| Total · 17 markets @ 1u each | — | — | — | 8 W · 9 L | −6.23u | −37% ROI |
