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Home › Germany › Germany Bundesliga › Bayern München — Borussia Dortmund

Match Bayern München vs Borussia Dortmund October 18, 2025 — Result and Stats

Germany   /   Germany Bundesliga
Bayern München
Bayern München
Home · last 5 W W D W W
Kick-off
Sat 18 Oct · 16:30
2:1
Full-time
Borussia Dortmund
Borussia Dortmund
L W L W W Away · last 5
Referee Bastian Dankert, Germany
Miss
Over 3.5
Over 3.5
AI 61% · book 1.90 ✗
Hit
BTTS Yes
BTTS Yes
AI 70% · book 1.55 ✓
Hit
Over 2.5
Over 2.5
AI 79% · book 1.35 ✓
Total goals
3
2 · 1
xG (open play)
2.13 – 1.53
Δ +0.60
Possession
61% – 39%
AI accuracy
8 / 17
picks cashed
Post-match · 90 sec read

Preview & Verdict

In this highly anticipated clash between Bayern München and Borussia Dortmund, the attacking prowess of both teams suggests a high-scoring affair. Our model estimates a 78.87% chance for over 2.5 goals, with odds of 1.35 offering a solid opportunity. Bayern's home advantage and Dortmund's attacking profile make both teams to score a likely outcome, with a 70.02% probability and odds of 1.55. Expect Bayern to leverage their overall strength, reflected in a 73.61% probability of a home win at odds of 1.39. The tempo and quality of chances should favor goals, with over 3.5 goals also a viable option at 60.57% probability and odds of 1.9.

P Recap generated by AI · 6 markets graded

⛀ Lineups

BAY 4-2-3-1 · DOR 3-4-2-1
BAY · 4-2-3-1 3-4-2-1 · DOR 1 Neuer 23 Boey 2 Upamecano 4 Tah 27 Laimer 6 Kimmich 45 Pavlović 17 Olise ⚽ 9 Kane ⚽ 14 Díaz 11 Jackson 1 Kobel 25 Süle 3 Anton 4 Schlotterbeck 26 Ryerson 13 Groß 20 Sabitzer 24 Svensson 27 Adeyemi 8 Nmecha 9 Guirassy
Subs used · BAY
61' Goretzka ↑ · Jackson ↓
84' Bischof ↑ · Boey ↓
90+2' Min-Jae ↑ · Pavlovic ↓
Subs used · DOR
46' Bensebaini ↑ · Sule ↓
73' Bellingham ↑ · Sabitzer ↓
74' Beier ↑ · Adeyemi ↓
84' Brandt ↑ · Gross ↓
84' Silva ↑ · Guirassy ↓

📊 Statistics

BAY 2 – 1 DOR
61%
Possession (%)
39%
2.13
Expected Goals (xG) expected goals
1.53
15
Total Shots
8
7
Shots on Target
1
5
Shots off Target
4
12
Shots Inside Box
5
4
Corner Kicks
3
2
Offsides
1
12
Fouls
17
88%
Pass Accuracy (%)
77%
1
Yellow Cards
3
0
Goalkeeper Saves
6

⏱ Match events

15 · 2 – 1
20'
▮
Julian Ryerson
Yellow Card
H. Kane
Assist · J. Kimmich · 1–0
⚽
22'
44'
▮
Waldemar Anton
Yellow Card
Half-time · 1 – 0
46'
⇄
R. Bensebaini ↓ · N. Sule ↑
Substitution 1
Konrad Laimer
Yellow Card
▮
48'
50'
▮
Ramy Bensebaini
Yellow Card
L. Goretzka ↓ · N. Jackson ↑
Substitution 1
⇄
61'
73'
⇄
J. Bellingham ↓ · M. Sabitzer ↑
Substitution 2
74'
⇄
M. Beier ↓ · K. Adeyemi ↑
Substitution 3
M. Olise
2–0
⚽
78'
T. Bischof ↓ · S. Boey ↑
Substitution 2
⇄
84'
84'
⇄
J. Brandt ↓ · P. Gross ↑
Substitution 4
84'
⇄
F. Silva ↓ · S. Guirassy ↑
Substitution 5
84'
⚽
J. Brandt
Assist · J. Ryerson · 2–1
Kim Min-Jae ↓ · A. Pavlovic ↑
Substitution 3
⇄
90+2'
Full-time · 2 – 1

Match recap

Bayern München beat Borussia Dortmund 2–1 at home. At half-time it was 1–0.

In possession, the hosts ran the game with 61% of the ball. For accuracy, the hosts completed 88% of their passes. On the balance of chances, the hosts held the expected-goals edge, 2.13 to 1.53. In attack, the hosts carried the greater threat — 15 shots to 8, 7 on target. At the back, the visitors leaned on their goalkeeper for 6 saves. For discipline, the referee produced 4 yellow cards.

On the scoresheet: H. Kane (22'), M. Olise (78'), J. Brandt (84').

Model audit for this match: of 17 graded markets, 8 landed and 9 missed, for a net -6.29 units (Brier 0.075).

⚖ Bet recap · markets settled

17 · 8 W · 9 L
Market Odds Closed AI Result P/L · 1u
Over 3.5 1.90 — 61% Lost −1.00 Miss
BTTS Yes 1.55 — 70% Cashed +0.55 Cashed
Over 2.5 1.35 — 79% Cashed +0.35 Cashed
Home Win 1.39 — 74% Cashed +0.39 Cashed
Double Chance 1X 1.12 — 91% Cashed +0.12 Cashed
Over 1.5 1.11 — 92% Cashed +0.11 Cashed
Draw 6.00 — 17% Lost −1.00 Miss
Away Win 8.00 — 9% Lost −1.00 Miss
BTTS No 2.54 — 30% Lost −1.00 Miss
Over 0.5 1.02 — 98% Cashed +0.02 Cashed
Under 0.5 26.00 — 2% Lost −1.00 Miss
Under 1.5 8.50 — 8% Lost −1.00 Miss
Under 2.5 3.55 — 21% Lost −1.00 Miss
Under 3.5 2.04 — 39% Cashed +1.04 Cashed
Double Chance X2 3.34 — 26% Lost −1.00 Miss
AH Home 0 1.13 — 74% Cashed +0.13 Cashed
AH Away 0 5.90 — 9% Lost −1.00 Miss
Total · 17 markets @ 1u each — — — 8 W · 9 L −6.29u −37% ROI