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⚽ Football 📈 Forecasts
Football Germany Germany Bundesliga FSV Mainz 05 — Borussia Dortmund

Match FSV Mainz 05 vs Borussia Dortmund September 27, 2025

FSV Mainz 05
FSV Mainz 05
Home · last 5 D L W L W
Kick-off
Sat 27 Sep · 13:30
0:2
Full-time
Borussia Dortmund
Borussia Dortmund
L W L W W Away · last 5
Mewa Arena · Mainz Referee Tobias Reichel, Germany
Hit
Away Win
Away Win
AI 54% · book 2.23
Miss
BTTS Yes
BTTS Yes
AI 65% · book 1.53
Miss
Over 2.5
Over 2.5
AI 60% · book 1.66
Total goals
2
0 · 2
xG (open play)
0.31 – 1.35
Δ −1.04
Possession
50% – 50%
AI accuracy
2 / 7
picks cashed
Post-match · 90 sec read

This match features a clear contrast in recent form and overall strength, with Borussia Dortmund showing strong momentum and attacking prowess away from home. Mainz have struggled to find consistency and have a more cautious defensive approach, especially at home. Dortmund’s ability to create quality chances and maintain defensive solidity on the road suggests they hold the upper hand. The model favors an away win but also acknowledges the possibility of a draw given Mainz’s home resilience. Goals are expected, with a good chance both teams will score, reflecting Dortmund’s attacking threat and Mainz’s ability to capitalize on opportunities.

Key angles include backing the away win and the both teams to score market, alongside a preference for over 2.5 goals given the attacking profiles. Asian handicap on Dortmund at 0 or -0.5 also offers value considering their form and overall strength. Conservative bettors might consider double chance options to cover the draw risk.

P Recap generated by AI · 6 markets graded

Lineups

MAI 3-4-2-1 · DOR 3-4-3
Subs used · MAI
63' Bell ↑ · Leitsch
63' Nordin ↑ · Lee
69' Riess ↑ · Hanche-Olsen
80' Weiper ↑ · Sieb
80' Maloney ↑ · Amiri
Subs used · DOR
68' Chukwuemeka ↑ · Adeyemi
69' Ryerson ↑ · Couto
77' Groß ↑ · Sabitzer
77' Bellingham ↑ · Nmecha
87' Silva ↑ · Beier

📊 Statistics

MAI 02 DOR
50%
Possession (%)
50%
0.31
Expected Goals (xG) expected goals
1.35
8
Total Shots
9
2
Shots on Target
3
5
Shots off Target
3
6
Shots Inside Box
7
7
Corner Kicks
1
4
Offsides
2
12
Fouls
14
75%
Pass Accuracy (%)
77%
2
Yellow Cards
1
1
Goalkeeper Saves
2

Match events

16 · 0 – 2
27'
Daniel Svensson
Assist · Julian Brandt · 0–1
40'
Karim Adeyemi
Assist · Julian Brandt · 0–2
43'
Yan Couto
Yellow Card
Half-time · 0 – 2
Nadiem Amiri
Yellow Card
50'
Stefan Bell ↓ · Maxim Leitsch ↑
Substitution 1
63'
Arnaud Nordin ↓ · Jae-sung Lee ↑
Substitution 2
63'
Robin Zentner
Red Card
67'
68'
Carney Chukwuemeka ↓ · Karim Adeyemi ↑
Substitution 1
Lasse Riess ↓ · Andreas Hanche-Olsen ↑
Substitution 3
69'
69'
Julian Ryerson ↓ · Yan Couto ↑
Substitution 2
77'
Pascal Groß ↓ · Marcel Sabitzer ↑
Substitution 3
77'
Jobe Bellingham ↓ · Felix Nmecha ↑
Substitution 4
Nelson Weiper ↓ · Armindo Sieb ↑
Substitution 4
80'
Lennard Maloney ↓ · Nadiem Amiri ↑
Substitution 5
80'
87'
Fábio Silva ↓ · Maximilian Beier ↑
Substitution 5
Paul Nebel
Yellow Card
90'
Full-time · 0 – 2

Bet recap · markets settled

7 · 2 W · 5 L
Market Odds Closed AI Result P/L · 1u
Away Win 2.23 54% Cashed +1.23 Cashed
BTTS Yes 1.53 65% Lost −1.00 Miss
Over 2.5 1.66 60% Lost −1.00 Miss
AH Home 0 2.35 45% Lost −1.00 Miss
Double Chance X2 1.40 75% Cashed +0.40 Cashed
Home Win 3.22 23% Lost −1.00 Miss
Draw 3.90 24% Lost −1.00 Miss
Total · 7 markets @ 1u each 2 W · 5 L −3.37u −48% ROI