Match Fenerbahçe vs Beşiktaş April 5, 2026 — Result and Stats on Prognosist

Post-match · 90 sec read

AI picks Over 2.5 at 1.66 — +10.3% better than the market.

Fenerbahce holds a clear quality edge at home, backed by a solid defensive record and a strong offensive output that challenges Besiktas' defense. Despite Besiktas' recent winning streak, Fenerbahce's home momentum and tactical discipline suggest a competitive encounter with potential for goals. The pace is likely to be lively, given the odds favoring over 2.5 goals, hinting at open play and attacking intent from both sides.

Home defensive solidity vs away attacking pressure
Recent form favors visitors but home strength prevails
Expected open game with goal-scoring opportunities

P Recap generated by AI · 6 markets graded

Pick of the night · settled · Over 2.5

Over 2.5 @ 1.66 ✗ Lost

AI 66% Implied 60% −1.00u

−100%

ROI on stake

⛀ Lineups

FEN 4-2-3-1 · BES 4-2-3-1

FEN · 4-2-3-1 4-2-3-1 · BES

94 Talisca

📊 Statistics

FEN 1 – 0 BES

56%

Possession (%)

44%

2.93

Expected Goals (xG) expected goals

0.95

Total Shots

Shots on Target

Shots off Target

Shots Inside Box

Corner Kicks

Offsides

Fouls

83%

Pass Accuracy (%)

77%

Yellow Cards

Goalkeeper Saves

Match recap

Fenerbahçe beat Beşiktaş 1–0 at home. At half-time it was 0–0.

In possession, the hosts ran the game with 56% of the ball. On the balance of chances, the hosts held the expected-goals edge, 2.93 to 0.95. From set pieces, the hosts won the corner count, 10 to 5. At the back, the visitors leaned on their goalkeeper for 5 saves. For discipline, the referee produced 8 yellow cards.

Model audit for this match: of 17 graded markets, 8 landed and 9 missed, for a net +0.28 units (Brier 0.256).

⚖ Bet recap · markets settled

17 · 8 W · 9 L

Market	Odds	Closed	AI	Result	P/L · 1u
Over 2.5	1.66	—	66%	Lost	−1.00	Miss
Over 3.5	2.63	—	45%	Lost	−1.00	Miss
Home Win	2.05	—	56%	Cashed	+1.05	Cashed
BTTS No	2.45	—	35%	Cashed	+1.45	Cashed
Double Chance X2	1.85	—	44%	Lost	−1.00	Miss
Under 2.5	2.38	—	34%	Cashed	+1.38	Cashed
AH Away 0	2.64	—	20%	Lost	−1.00	Miss
Double Chance 1X	1.31	—	80%	Cashed	+0.31	Cashed
BTTS Yes	1.58	—	65%	Lost	−1.00	Miss
Under 3.5	1.55	—	55%	Cashed	+0.55	Cashed
AH Home 0	1.50	—	56%	Cashed	+0.50	Cashed
Over 1.5	1.21	—	85%	Lost	−1.00	Miss
Over 0.5	1.04	—	96%	Cashed	+0.04	Cashed
Draw	3.80	—	24%	Lost	−1.00	Miss
Under 1.5	5.00	—	15%	Cashed	+4.00	Cashed
Away Win	3.75	—	20%	Lost	−1.00	Miss
Under 0.5	15.00	—	5%	Lost	−1.00	Miss
Total · 17 markets @ 1u each	—	—	—	8 W · 9 L	+0.28u	+2% ROI