P
Prognosist
P
⚽ Football 57 + Value 23 📈 Forecasts
Football England Premier League Burnley — Manchester City
England   /   Premier League Value pick inside
Burnley
Burnley
Home · last 5 L L L D L
Kick-off
Wed 22 Apr · 19:00
0:1
Full-time
Manchester City
Manchester City
W D W W D Away · last 5
Turf Moor · Burnley Referee Andy Madley, England
Hit
Under 3.5
Under 3.5
AI 61% · book 1.87
Hit
BTTS No
BTTS No
AI 50% · book 1.95
Miss
BTTS Yes
BTTS Yes
AI 50% · book 1.91
Total goals
1
0 · 1
xG (open play)
0.57 – 3.15
Δ −2.58
Possession
35% – 65%
AI accuracy
8 / 17
picks cashed
Post-match · 90 sec read

AI picks Under 3.5 at 1.87 — +13.2% better than the market.

Manchester City arrive at Turf Moor with a clear quality edge and better recent form, suggesting they hold the upper hand. Burnley's defensive solidity may be tested by City's potent attack, which has shown consistent threat. Despite Burnley's home familiarity, their recent struggles and City's pressing edge hint at a controlled away performance. The pace of the game could lean towards a moderate tempo, favoring City's ability to break down compact defenses.

  • City's superior offensive firepower against Burnley's defense
  • Burnley's poor recent form versus City's steady momentum
  • Home advantage softened by City's tactical discipline

P Recap generated by AI · 6 markets graded
Pick of the night · settled · Under 3.5
Under 3.5 @ 1.87 ✓ Cashed
AI 61% Implied 53% +0.87u
+87%
ROI on stake

Lineups

BUR 5-4-1 · MCI 4-2-3-1
Subs used · BUR
72' Foster ↑ · Tchaouna
82' Broja ↑ · Flemming
82' Florentino ↑ · Humphreys
87' Tresor Ndayishimiye ↑ · Anthony
87' Edwards ↑ · Laurent
Subs used · MCI
65' Nico ↑ · Ait-Nouri
65' Savinho ↑ · Semenyo

📊 Statistics

BUR 01 MCI
35%
Possession (%)
65%
0.57
Expected Goals (xG) expected goals
3.15
9
Total Shots
28
1
Shots on Target
9
4
Shots off Target
9
6
Shots Inside Box
19
3
Corner Kicks
11
4
Offsides
1
10
Fouls
12
79%
Pass Accuracy (%)
90%
8
Goalkeeper Saves
1

Match events

8 · 0 – 1
5'
E. Haaland
Assist · J. Doku · 0–1
Half-time · 0 – 1
65'
Nico ↓ · R. Ait-Nouri ↑
Substitution 1
65'
Savinho ↓ · A. Semenyo ↑
Substitution 2
L. Foster ↓ · L. Tchaouna ↑
Substitution 1
72'
A. Broja ↓ · Z. Flemming ↑
Substitution 2
82'
Florentino ↓ · B. Humphreys ↑
Substitution 3
82'
M. Tresor Ndayishimiye ↓ · J. Anthony ↑
Substitution 4
87'
M. Edwards ↓ · J. Laurent ↑
Substitution 5
87'
Full-time · 0 – 1

Bet recap · markets settled

17 · 8 W · 9 L
Market Odds Closed AI Result P/L · 1u
Under 3.5 1.87 61% Cashed +0.87 Cashed
BTTS No 1.95 50% Cashed +0.95 Cashed
BTTS Yes 1.91 50% Lost −1.00 Miss
Over 3.5 2.08 39% Lost −1.00 Miss
Under 2.5 3.00 39% Cashed +2.00 Cashed
Under 1.5 6.50 19% Cashed +5.50 Cashed
Draw 7.00 15% Lost −1.00 Miss
Double Chance X2 1.07 94% Cashed +0.07 Cashed
Away Win 1.26 79% Cashed +0.26 Cashed
Over 2.5 1.40 61% Lost −1.00 Miss
AH Away 0 1.04 79% Cashed +0.04 Cashed
Under 0.5 25.00 5% Lost −1.00 Miss
Over 0.5 1.02 95% Cashed +0.02 Cashed
Over 1.5 1.13 81% Lost −1.00 Miss
Double Chance 1X 4.35 21% Lost −1.00 Miss
Home Win 13.20 6% Lost −1.00 Miss
AH Home 0 7.20 6% Lost −1.00 Miss
Total · 17 markets @ 1u each 8 W · 9 L +0.71u +4% ROI
Best bet of the night · Under 3.5
BUR – MCI @ 1.87
+13.2%
Edge
Forecast →