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Home England Premier League Burnley — Manchester City

Predictions Burnley vs Manchester City April 22, 2026 — Predictions and Probabilities

England   /   Premier League Value pick inside
Burnley
Burnley
Home · last 5 L L D L D
Kick-off
Wed 22 Apr · 19:00
0:1
Full-time
Manchester City
Manchester City
D W W D L Away · last 5
Turf Moor · Burnley Referee Andy Madley, England
Home Win · BUR
6%
Best 18.25
Draw
16%
Best 9.40
Away Win · MCI
79%
Best 1.14
Value pick
Under 3.5
@ 1.87
Fair odds
1.65
book 1.87 · +13.2% vs market
Bookmakers polled
4
distinct bookmakers
Pick confidence
High
p 61% · EV +13.2%

Match predictions

Simple model predictions for the main markets. Advanced model details are available below.

Most likely outcomes show what the model expects to happen. A betting pick also considers bookmaker prices, so it can differ from the most likely outcome.

Estimated probability — model's view. Implied probability — back-solved from the best book price. Bet quality: High Medium Low
FT Results 3 markets
Draw
Probability 15.5%
Odds 7.00
Show model details
Implied probability 14.3%
Bet quality Medium
Away Win Top pick
Probability 79%
Odds 1.26
Show model details
Implied probability 79.4%
Bet quality Medium
Home Win
Probability 5.6%
Odds 13.20
Show model details
Implied probability 7.6%
Bet quality Low
Totals 8 markets
Under 3.5 Value pick
Probability 60.5%
Odds 1.87
Show model details
Implied probability 53.5%
Bet quality High
Over 3.5
Probability 39.5%
Odds 2.08
Show model details
Implied probability 48.1%
Bet quality Low
Under 2.5
Probability 39%
Odds 3.00
Show model details
Implied probability 33.3%
Bet quality Medium
Under 1.5
Probability 18.5%
Odds 6.50
Show model details
Implied probability 15.4%
Bet quality Medium
Over 2.5
Probability 61.1%
Odds 1.40
Show model details
Implied probability 71.4%
Bet quality Low
Under 0.5
Probability 4.8%
Odds 25.00
Show model details
Implied probability 4%
Bet quality Low
Over 0.5 Best in group
Probability 95.2%
Odds 1.02
Show model details
Implied probability 98%
Bet quality Low
Over 1.5
Probability 81.5%
Odds 1.13
Show model details
Implied probability 88.5%
Bet quality Low
BTTS 2 markets
BTTS No Best in group
Probability 50.2%
Odds 1.95
Show model details
Implied probability 51.3%
Bet quality Low
BTTS Yes
Probability 49.8%
Odds 1.91
Show model details
Implied probability 52.4%
Bet quality Low
Asian Handicap 2 markets
AH Away 0 Top pick
Probability 79%
Odds 1.04
Show model details
Implied probability 96.2%
Bet quality Medium
AH Home 0
Probability 5.6%
Odds 7.20
Show model details
Implied probability 13.9%
Bet quality Low
Other Markets 2 markets
Double Chance X2 Top pick
Probability 94.5%
Odds 1.07
Show model details
Implied probability 93.5%
Bet quality Medium
Double Chance 1X
Probability 21%
Odds 4.35
Show model details
Implied probability 23%
Bet quality Low

Predictions are model estimates based on data, not guaranteed outcomes. 18+ — please play responsibly.

Value pick of the night · Under 3.5
BUR – MCI @ 1.87
+13.2%
Edge
Forecast →