Başakşehir vs Kocaelispor 1:0 — Match Review & Stats

Post-match · 90 sec read

AI picks BTTS No at 1.93 — +14.1% better than the market.

Istanbul Basaksehir holds a clear quality edge and benefits from a solid defensive setup that challenges Kocaelispor's attacking efforts. Despite Kocaelispor's slightly better recent form, Basaksehir's home momentum and defensive resilience suggest a tight contest with limited goal-scoring opportunities. The match likely leans towards a controlled pace, favoring a compact block and cautious buildup from the hosts.

Home defensive strength vs away attack mismatch
Basaksehir's home edge in tactical discipline
Moderate recent form gap with away's slight momentum

P Recap generated by AI · 6 markets graded

Pick of the night · settled · BTTS No

BTTS No @ 1.93 ✓ Cashed

AI 59% Implied 52% +0.93u

+93%

ROI on stake

Lineups

IST 4-2-3-1 · KOC 4-2-3-1

IST · 4-2-3-1 4-2-3-1 · KOC

14 Shomurodov

Statistics

IST 1 – 0 KOC

58%

Possession (%)

42%

1.65

Expected Goals (xG) expected goals

1.04

Total Shots

Shots on Target

Shots off Target

Shots Inside Box

Corner Kicks

Offsides

Fouls

87%

Pass Accuracy (%)

81%

Yellow Cards

Goalkeeper Saves

Match recap

Başakşehir beat Kocaelispor 1–0 at home. At half-time it was 0–0.

In possession, the hosts ran the game with 58% of the ball. On the balance of chances, the hosts held the expected-goals edge, 1.65 to 1.04. In attack, the hosts carried the greater threat — 16 shots to 11, 4 on target. At the back, the hosts leaned on their goalkeeper for 6 saves. For discipline, the referee produced 4 yellow cards.

Model audit for this match: of 17 graded markets, 8 landed and 9 missed, for a net -2.71 units (Brier 0.126).

Bet recap · markets settled

17 · 8 W · 9 L

Market	Odds	Closed	AI	Result	P/L · 1u
Under 2.5	1.88	—	62%	Cashed	+0.88	Cashed
BTTS No	1.93	—	59%	Cashed	+0.93	Cashed
Home Win	1.86	—	60%	Cashed	+0.86	Cashed
Double Chance X2	2.07	—	40%	Lost	−1.00	Miss
BTTS Yes	1.91	—	41%	Lost	−1.00	Miss
Over 2.5	2.06	—	38%	Lost	−1.00	Miss
Under 3.5	1.34	—	81%	Cashed	+0.34	Cashed
Under 1.5	3.60	—	36%	Cashed	+2.60	Cashed
Under 0.5	11.00	—	12%	Lost	−1.00	Miss
Double Chance 1X	1.23	—	85%	Cashed	+0.23	Cashed
AH Home 0	1.38	—	60%	Cashed	+0.38	Cashed
Over 0.5	1.07	—	88%	Cashed	+0.07	Cashed
Draw	3.66	—	25%	Lost	−1.00	Miss
Over 1.5	1.34	—	64%	Lost	−1.00	Miss
Away Win	4.75	—	15%	Lost	−1.00	Miss
Over 3.5	3.59	—	19%	Lost	−1.00	Miss
AH Away 0	3.49	—	15%	Lost	−1.00	Miss
Total · 17 markets @ 1u each	—	—	—	8 W · 9 L	−2.71u	−16% ROI

Başakşehir vs Kocaelispor 1:0: Match Review & Stats

Model verdict

⛀ Lineups

📊 Statistics

Match recap

⚖ Bet recap · markets settled

Lineups

Statistics

Bet recap · markets settled