Match Fenerbahçe vs Fatih Karagümrük October 19, 2025

Post-match · 90 sec read

Preview & Verdict

Fenerbahce is set to host Fatih Karagümrük in a match where the home side is heavily favored. With an estimated 81.08% chance of winning, Fenerbahce's attacking profile and home advantage make them the likely victors. However, the draw offers intriguing value with an estimated probability of 14.06% against odds of 8.05, suggesting a potential upset. Both teams have shown a tendency to score, making the 'BTTS Yes' market appealing at odds of 2.15. Expect a dynamic game with multiple goals, as the 'Over 2.5 Goals' market is also a strong contender.

P Recap generated by AI · 6 markets graded

⛀ Lineups

FEN 4-3-3 · KAR 4-2-3-1

FEN · 4-3-3 4-2-3-1 · KAR

9 Akturkoglu

📊 Statistics

FEN 2 – 1 KAR

58%

Possession (%)

42%

2.72

Expected Goals (xG) expected goals

0.84

Total Shots

Shots on Target

Shots off Target

Shots Inside Box

Corner Kicks

Offsides

Fouls

82%

Pass Accuracy (%)

75%

Yellow Cards

Goalkeeper Saves

Match recap

Fenerbahçe beat Fatih Karagümrük 2–1 at home. At half-time it was 2–0.

In possession, the hosts ran the game with 58% of the ball. On the balance of chances, the hosts held the expected-goals edge, 2.72 to 0.84. In attack, the hosts carried the greater threat — 21 shots to 16, 8 on target. For discipline, the referee produced 7 yellow cards.

Model audit for this match: of 17 graded markets, 8 landed and 9 missed, for a net -6.17 units (Brier 0.078).

⚖ Bet recap · markets settled

17 · 8 W · 9 L

Market	Odds	Closed	AI	Result	P/L · 1u
Draw	8.05	—	14%	Lost	−1.00	Miss
BTTS Yes	2.15	—	48%	Cashed	+1.15	Cashed
Double Chance X2	5.38	—	19%	Lost	−1.00	Miss
Over 2.5	1.47	—	66%	Cashed	+0.47	Cashed
Home Win	1.21	—	81%	Cashed	+0.21	Cashed
Over 1.5	1.15	—	86%	Cashed	+0.15	Cashed
Away Win	15.00	—	5%	Lost	−1.00	Miss
BTTS No	1.87	—	52%	Lost	−1.00	Miss
Over 0.5	1.03	—	97%	Cashed	+0.03	Cashed
Under 0.5	22.00	—	3%	Lost	−1.00	Miss
Under 1.5	6.50	—	14%	Lost	−1.00	Miss
Under 2.5	2.88	—	34%	Lost	−1.00	Miss
Over 3.5	2.18	—	44%	Lost	−1.00	Miss
Under 3.5	1.74	—	56%	Cashed	+0.74	Cashed
Double Chance 1X	1.05	—	95%	Cashed	+0.05	Cashed
AH Home 0	1.03	—	81%	Cashed	+0.03	Cashed
AH Away 0	9.80	—	5%	Lost	−1.00	Miss
Total · 17 markets @ 1u each	—	—	—	8 W · 9 L	−6.17u	−36% ROI