Match AZ Alkmaar vs NAC Breda May 17, 2026 — Result and Stats on Prognosist

Post-match · 90 sec read

AI picks Under 3.5 at 1.86 — +9.9% better than the market.

AZ Alkmaar enter this clash with clear home momentum, boasting a solid recent run and a notable quality edge over NAC Breda. Their compact defensive block and superior offensive firepower should challenge NAC’s less consistent backline. The home side’s pressing edge and better form suggest they will control the tempo, likely limiting NAC’s chances to threaten.

AZ’s strong home form and defensive solidity
NAC’s struggle to maintain consistent results away
Expected moderate pace with a tactical focus on control

P Recap generated by AI · 6 markets graded

Pick of the night · settled · Under 3.5

Under 3.5 @ 1.86 ✗ Lost

AI 59% Implied 54% −1.00u

−100%

ROI on stake

⛀ Lineups

ALK 4-2-3-1 · BRE 5-3-2

ALK · 4-2-3-1 5-3-2 · BRE

9 Parrott

📊 Statistics

ALK 3 – 3 BRE

55%

Possession (%)

45%

1.45

Expected Goals (xG) expected goals

2.08

Total Shots

Shots on Target

Shots off Target

Shots Inside Box

Corner Kicks

Offsides

Fouls

85%

Pass Accuracy (%)

85%

Yellow Cards

Goalkeeper Saves

Match recap

AZ Alkmaar and NAC Breda drew 3–3. At half-time it was 2–0.

In possession, the hosts ran the game with 55% of the ball. On the balance of chances, the visitors held the expected-goals edge, 2.08 to 1.45. In front of goal, the hosts were clinical, scoring 3 from 1.45 expected goals.

Model audit for this match: of 15 graded markets, 7 landed and 8 missed, for a net +0.89 units (Brier 0.247).

⚖ Bet recap · markets settled

15 · 7 W · 8 L

Market	Odds	Closed	AI	Result	P/L · 1u
Under 3.5	1.86	—	59%	Lost	−1.00	Miss
BTTS No	2.40	—	44%	Lost	−1.00	Miss
Over 3.5	1.98	—	41%	Cashed	+0.98	Cashed
Under 2.5	3.10	—	37%	Lost	−1.00	Miss
Under 1.5	7.00	—	17%	Lost	−1.00	Miss
Home Win	1.38	—	73%	Lost	−1.00	Miss
Double Chance 1X	1.08	—	91%	Cashed	+0.08	Cashed
BTTS Yes	1.57	—	56%	Cashed	+0.57	Cashed
AH Home 0	1.12	—	73%	Lost	−1.00	Miss
Draw	5.50	—	18%	Cashed	+4.50	Cashed
Over 1.5	1.10	—	83%	Cashed	+0.10	Cashed
Double Chance X2	3.30	—	27%	Cashed	+2.30	Cashed
Over 2.5	1.36	—	63%	Cashed	+0.36	Cashed
Away Win	8.00	—	9%	Lost	−1.00	Miss
AH Away 0	6.25	—	9%	Lost	−1.00	Miss
Total · 15 markets @ 1u each	—	—	—	7 W · 8 L	+0.89u	+6% ROI