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Home Netherlands Eredivisie AZ Alkmaar — NAC Breda

Predictions AZ Alkmaar vs NAC Breda May 17, 2026 — Predictions and Probabilities

Netherlands   /   Eredivisie Value pick inside
AZ Alkmaar
AZ Alkmaar
Home · last 5 W D D D D
Kick-off
Sun 17 May · 12:30
3:3
Full-time
NAC Breda
NAC Breda
D L L W D Away · last 5
AFAS Stadion · Alkmaar Referee E. van de Graaf
Home Win · ALK
73%
Best 1.37
Draw
18%
Best 5.50
Away Win · BRE
9%
Best 8.00
Value pick
Under 3.5
@ 1.86
Fair odds
1.69
book 1.86 · +9.9% vs market
Bookmakers polled
Pick confidence
High
p 59% · EV +9.9%

Match predictions

Simple model predictions for the main markets. Advanced model details are available below.

Most likely outcomes show what the model expects to happen. A betting pick also considers bookmaker prices, so it can differ from the most likely outcome.

Estimated probability — model's view. Implied probability — back-solved from the best book price. Bet quality: High Medium Low
FT Results 3 markets
Home Win Top pick
Probability 73%
Odds 1.38
Show model details
Implied probability 72.5%
Bet quality Medium
Draw
Probability 18.1%
Odds 5.50
Show model details
Implied probability 18.2%
Bet quality Low
Away Win
Probability 9%
Odds 8.00
Show model details
Implied probability 12.5%
Bet quality Low
Totals 6 markets
Under 3.5 Value pick
Probability 59.1%
Odds 1.86
Show model details
Implied probability 53.8%
Bet quality High
Over 3.5
Probability 40.9%
Odds 1.98
Show model details
Implied probability 50.5%
Bet quality Low
Under 2.5
Probability 37.4%
Odds 3.10
Show model details
Implied probability 32.3%
Bet quality Medium
Under 1.5
Probability 17.3%
Odds 7.00
Show model details
Implied probability 14.3%
Bet quality Medium
Over 1.5 Best in group
Probability 82.7%
Odds 1.10
Show model details
Implied probability 90.9%
Bet quality Low
Over 2.5
Probability 62.6%
Odds 1.36
Show model details
Implied probability 73.5%
Bet quality Low
BTTS 2 markets
BTTS No
Probability 43.7%
Odds 2.40
Show model details
Implied probability 41.7%
Bet quality Medium
BTTS Yes Best in group
Probability 56.3%
Odds 1.57
Show model details
Implied probability 63.7%
Bet quality Low
Asian Handicap 2 markets
AH Home 0 Top pick
Probability 73%
Odds 1.12
Show model details
Implied probability 89.3%
Bet quality Medium
AH Away 0
Probability 9%
Odds 6.25
Show model details
Implied probability 16%
Bet quality Low
Other Markets 2 markets
Double Chance 1X Top pick
Probability 91%
Odds 1.08
Show model details
Implied probability 92.6%
Bet quality Medium
Double Chance X2
Probability 27.1%
Odds 3.30
Show model details
Implied probability 30.3%
Bet quality Low

Predictions are model estimates based on data, not guaranteed outcomes. 18+ — please play responsibly.

Value pick of the night · Under 3.5
ALK – BRE @ 1.86
+9.9%
Edge
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