Match Heerenveen vs Groningen January 18, 2026 — Result and Stats on Prognosist

Post-match · 90 sec read

AI picks Over 2.5 at 1.86 — +13.7% better than the market.

Heerenveen arrives with a clear quality edge and home momentum, showing sharper attacking potential against Groningen's leaky defense. Their recent form suggests a pressing edge, while Groningen's resilience could keep the game competitive. Expect a lively pace given the odds favoring over 2.5 goals, hinting at open play and goal opportunities.

Home side's offensive strength vs away defense
Heerenveen's better recent form and home comfort
Potential for multiple goals with attacking intent

P Recap generated by AI · 6 markets graded

Pick of the night · settled · Over 2.5

Over 2.5 @ 1.86 ✗ Lost

AI 61% Implied 54% −1.00u

−100%

ROI on stake

⛀ Lineups

HEE 4-2-3-1 · GRO 4-2-3-1

HEE · 4-2-3-1 4-2-3-1 · GRO

9 Vente

📊 Statistics

HEE 0 – 2 GRO

56%

Possession (%)

44%

1.28

Expected Goals (xG) expected goals

1.87

Total Shots

Shots on Target

Shots off Target

Shots Inside Box

Corner Kicks

Offsides

Fouls

83%

Pass Accuracy (%)

77%

Yellow Cards

Goalkeeper Saves

Match recap

Groningen won 2–0 away at Heerenveen. At half-time it was 0–0.

In possession, the hosts ran the game with 56% of the ball. On the balance of chances, the visitors held the expected-goals edge, 1.87 to 1.28. From set pieces, the visitors won the corner count, 6 to 3. For discipline, the referee produced 3 yellow cards.

Model audit for this match: of 17 graded markets, 8 landed and 9 missed, for a net -1.17 units (Brier 0.272).

⚖ Bet recap · markets settled

17 · 8 W · 9 L

Market	Odds	Closed	AI	Result	P/L · 1u
Over 2.5	1.86	—	61%	Lost	−1.00	Miss
Home Win	2.28	—	52%	Lost	−1.00	Miss
BTTS Yes	1.60	—	63%	Lost	−1.00	Miss
BTTS No	2.49	—	37%	Cashed	+1.49	Cashed
Under 2.5	2.18	—	39%	Cashed	+1.18	Cashed
AH Home 0	1.62	—	52%	Lost	−1.00	Miss
Double Chance X2	1.67	—	48%	Cashed	+0.67	Cashed
AH Away 0	2.37	—	22%	Cashed	+1.37	Cashed
Over 3.5	2.90	—	40%	Lost	−1.00	Miss
Double Chance 1X	1.37	—	78%	Lost	−1.00	Miss
Under 3.5	1.50	—	60%	Cashed	+0.50	Cashed
Over 1.5	1.25	—	82%	Cashed	+0.25	Cashed
Over 0.5	1.05	—	95%	Cashed	+0.05	Cashed
Draw	3.50	—	26%	Lost	−1.00	Miss
Under 1.5	4.46	—	18%	Lost	−1.00	Miss
Away Win	3.32	—	22%	Cashed	+2.32	Cashed
Under 0.5	13.00	—	5%	Lost	−1.00	Miss
Total · 17 markets @ 1u each	—	—	—	8 W · 9 L	−1.17u	−7% ROI