Match Fortuna Sittard vs AZ Alkmaar December 21, 2025

Post-match · 90 sec read

AZ Alkmaar enters this clash with a clear quality edge and a stronger offensive profile, suggesting they can break down Fortuna Sittard’s compact defensive block. Despite Fortuna’s recent home momentum, their defensive struggles and AZ’s pressing edge could tilt the balance. Both teams have shown mixed form, but AZ’s ability to control the pace and exploit set-piece chances may prove decisive.

AZ’s superior attacking threat against a leaky defense
Fortuna’s home resilience but recent inconsistency
Moderate tempo hints at a balanced but open game

P Recap generated by AI · 6 markets graded

⛀ Lineups

SIT 4-2-3-1 · ALK 4-2-3-1

SIT · 4-2-3-1 4-2-3-1 · ALK

9 Sierhuis

📊 Statistics

SIT 4 – 3 ALK

34%

Possession (%)

66%

1.38

Expected Goals (xG) expected goals

3.79

Total Shots

Shots on Target

Shots off Target

Shots Inside Box

Corner Kicks

Offsides

Fouls

67%

Pass Accuracy (%)

88%

Yellow Cards

Goalkeeper Saves

Match recap

Fortuna Sittard beat AZ Alkmaar 4–3 at home. At half-time it was 2–2.

In possession, the visitors ran the game with 66% of the ball. For accuracy, the visitors completed 88% of their passes. On the balance of chances, the visitors held the expected-goals edge, 3.79 to 1.38. In attack, the visitors carried the greater threat — 21 shots to 15, 9 on target. From set pieces, the visitors won the corner count, 8 to 5. At the back, the hosts leaned on their goalkeeper for 5 saves. In front of goal, the hosts were clinical, scoring 4 from 1.38 expected goals. For discipline, the referee produced 3 yellow cards.

Model audit for this match: of 17 graded markets, 8 landed and 9 missed, for a net +0.32 units (Brier 0.272).

⚖ Bet recap · markets settled

17 · 8 W · 9 L

Market	Odds	Closed	AI	Result	P/L · 1u
Away Win	1.85	—	60%	Lost	−1.00	Miss
Over 2.5	1.63	—	61%	Cashed	+0.63	Cashed
Over 3.5	2.55	—	39%	Cashed	+1.55	Cashed
BTTS No	2.45	—	39%	Lost	−1.00	Miss
Under 2.5	2.45	—	39%	Lost	−1.00	Miss
Double Chance 1X	2.02	—	40%	Cashed	+1.02	Cashed
AH Away 0	1.40	—	60%	Lost	−1.00	Miss
Double Chance X2	1.27	—	83%	Lost	−1.00	Miss
Under 3.5	1.57	—	61%	Lost	−1.00	Miss
BTTS Yes	1.58	—	61%	Cashed	+0.58	Cashed
Over 0.5	1.04	—	95%	Cashed	+0.04	Cashed
Over 1.5	1.20	—	82%	Cashed	+0.20	Cashed
Under 1.5	5.25	—	18%	Lost	−1.00	Miss
Draw	4.10	—	23%	Lost	−1.00	Miss
Under 0.5	17.00	—	5%	Lost	−1.00	Miss
AH Home 0	3.10	—	17%	Cashed	+2.10	Cashed
Home Win	4.20	—	17%	Cashed	+3.20	Cashed
Total · 17 markets @ 1u each	—	—	—	8 W · 9 L	+0.32u	+2% ROI

Match Fortuna Sittard vs AZ Alkmaar December 21, 2025 — Result and Stats

⛀ Lineups

📊 Statistics

Match recap

⚖ Bet recap · markets settled