Match Excelsior vs Groningen December 5, 2025 — Result and Stats on Prognosist

Post-match · 90 sec read

Groningen holds a clear quality edge over Excelsior, with a stronger overall profile and a notable defensive advantage. Excelsior’s home form shows some resilience, but Groningen’s attacking threat against a less robust defense suggests they can press for goals. The recent form gap slightly favors Excelsior, hinting at a competitive match despite Groningen’s higher strength.

Groningen’s defensive solidity vs Excelsior’s attack
Excelsior’s home momentum balancing away quality
Moderate pace expected, leaning to a tactical, controlled game

P Recap generated by AI · 6 markets graded

⛀ Lineups

EXC 4-2-3-1 · GRO 4-2-3-1

EXC · 4-2-3-1 4-2-3-1 · GRO

33 Bergraaf

📊 Statistics

EXC 0 – 2 GRO

46%

Possession (%)

54%

1.97

Expected Goals (xG) expected goals

3.92

Total Shots

Shots on Target

Shots off Target

Shots Inside Box

Corner Kicks

Offsides

Fouls

79%

Pass Accuracy (%)

83%

Yellow Cards

Goalkeeper Saves

Match recap

Groningen won 2–0 away at Excelsior. At half-time it was 0–0.

On the balance of chances, the visitors held the expected-goals edge, 3.92 to 1.97. In attack, the visitors carried the greater threat — 20 shots to 16, 8 on target. For discipline, the referee produced 5 yellow cards.

Model audit for this match: of 17 graded markets, 8 landed and 9 missed, for a net -3.30 units (Brier 0.136).

⚖ Bet recap · markets settled

17 · 8 W · 9 L

Market	Odds	Closed	AI	Result	P/L · 1u
Away Win	2.19	—	53%	Cashed	+1.19	Cashed
BTTS No	2.51	—	45%	Cashed	+1.51	Cashed
Under 2.5	2.27	—	48%	Cashed	+1.27	Cashed
Over 2.5	1.73	—	52%	Lost	−1.00	Miss
Double Chance 1X	1.75	—	47%	Lost	−1.00	Miss
AH Home 0	2.49	—	22%	Lost	−1.00	Miss
Under 3.5	1.53	—	70%	Cashed	+0.53	Cashed
Under 1.5	4.69	—	24%	Lost	−1.00	Miss
Double Chance X2	1.36	—	78%	Cashed	+0.36	Cashed
BTTS Yes	1.58	—	55%	Lost	−1.00	Miss
Over 3.5	2.85	—	30%	Lost	−1.00	Miss
AH Away 0	1.58	—	53%	Cashed	+0.58	Cashed
Under 0.5	15.00	—	7%	Lost	−1.00	Miss
Over 0.5	1.04	—	93%	Cashed	+0.04	Cashed
Over 1.5	1.22	—	76%	Cashed	+0.22	Cashed
Draw	3.60	—	25%	Lost	−1.00	Miss
Home Win	3.35	—	22%	Lost	−1.00	Miss
Total · 17 markets @ 1u each	—	—	—	8 W · 9 L	−3.30u	−19% ROI