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Home › Netherlands › Eredivisie › Excelsior — Groningen

Excelsior vs Groningen 0:2: Match Review & Stats

Netherlands   /   Eredivisie Value pick inside
Excelsior
Excelsior
Home · last 5 D W W D W
Kick-off
Fri 05 Dec · 19:00
0:2
Full-time
Groningen
Groningen
L L W W L Away · last 5
Referee Martijn Vos, Netherlands
Hit
Away Win
Away Win
AI 53% · book 2.19 ✓
Hit
BTTS No
BTTS No
AI 45% · book 2.51 ✓
Hit
Under 2.5
Under 2.5
AI 48% · book 2.27 ✓
Total goals
2
0 · 2
xG (open play)
1.97 – 3.92
Δ −1.95
Possession
46% – 54%
AI accuracy
8 / 17
picks cashed

Model verdict

Post-match · 90 sec read

AI picks Under 1.5 at 4.69 — +13.7% better than the market.

Groningen holds a clear quality edge over Excelsior, with a stronger overall profile and a notable defensive advantage. Excelsior’s home form shows some resilience, but Groningen’s attacking threat against a less robust defense suggests they can press for goals. The recent form gap slightly favors Excelsior, hinting at a competitive match despite Groningen’s higher strength.

  • Groningen’s defensive solidity vs Excelsior’s attack
  • Excelsior’s home momentum balancing away quality
  • Moderate pace expected, leaning to a tactical, controlled game

P Recap generated by AI · 6 markets graded
Pick of the night · settled · Under 1.5
Under 1.5 @ 4.69 ✗ Lost
AI 24% Implied 21% −1.00u
−100%
ROI on stake

Statistics

EXC 0 – 2 GRO
46%
Possession (%)
54%
1.97
Expected Goals (xG) expected goals
3.92
16
Total Shots
20
6
Shots on Target
8
8
Shots off Target
8
14
Shots Inside Box
12
5
Corner Kicks
5
3
Offsides
2
10
Fouls
9
79%
Pass Accuracy (%)
83%
2
Yellow Cards
3
6
Goalkeeper Saves
5

Match recap

Groningen won 2–0 away at Excelsior. At half-time it was 0–0.

On the balance of chances, the visitors held the expected-goals edge, 3.92 to 1.97. In attack, the visitors carried the greater threat — 20 shots to 16, 8 on target. For discipline, the referee produced 5 yellow cards.

Model audit for this match: of 17 graded markets, 8 landed and 9 missed, for a net -3.30 units (Brier 0.136).

Bet recap · markets settled

17 · 8 W · 9 L
Market Odds Closed AI Result P/L · 1u
Away Win 2.19 — 53% Cashed +1.19 Cashed
BTTS No 2.51 — 45% Cashed +1.51 Cashed
Under 2.5 2.27 — 48% Cashed +1.27 Cashed
Over 2.5 1.73 — 52% Lost −1.00 Miss
Double Chance 1X 1.75 — 47% Lost −1.00 Miss
AH Home 0 2.49 — 22% Lost −1.00 Miss
Under 3.5 1.53 — 70% Cashed +0.53 Cashed
Under 1.5 4.69 — 24% Lost −1.00 Miss
Double Chance X2 1.36 — 78% Cashed +0.36 Cashed
BTTS Yes 1.58 — 55% Lost −1.00 Miss
Over 3.5 2.85 — 30% Lost −1.00 Miss
AH Away 0 1.58 — 53% Cashed +0.58 Cashed
Under 0.5 15.00 — 7% Lost −1.00 Miss
Over 0.5 1.04 — 93% Cashed +0.04 Cashed
Over 1.5 1.22 — 76% Cashed +0.22 Cashed
Draw 3.60 — 25% Lost −1.00 Miss
Home Win 3.35 — 22% Lost −1.00 Miss
Total · 17 markets @ 1u each — — — 8 W · 9 L −3.30u −19% ROI
Value pick of the night · Under 1.5
EXC – GRO @ 4.69
+13.7%
Edge
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