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Home Netherlands Eredivisie Excelsior — Groningen

Predictions Excelsior vs Groningen December 5, 2025 — Predictions and Probabilities

Netherlands   /   Eredivisie Value pick inside
Excelsior
Excelsior
Home · last 5 D W W D W
Kick-off
Fri 05 Dec · 19:00
0:2
Full-time
Groningen
Groningen
L L W W L Away · last 5
Referee Martijn Vos, Netherlands
Home Win · EXC
22%
Best 3.45
Draw
25%
Best 3.45
Away Win · GRO
53%
Best 2.10
Value pick
Under 1.5
@ 4.69
Fair odds
4.13
book 4.69 · +13.7% vs market
Bookmakers polled
4
distinct bookmakers
Pick confidence
Medium
p 24% · EV +13.7%

Value pick isn't the most likely outcome — Over 1.5 is more likely (76%), but Under 1.5 is priced above the model's fair odds.

Match predictions

Simple model predictions for the main markets. Advanced model details are available below.

Most likely outcomes show what the model expects to happen. A betting pick also considers bookmaker prices, so it can differ from the most likely outcome.

Estimated probability — model's view. Implied probability — back-solved from the best book price. Bet quality: High Medium Low
FT Results 3 markets
Away Win Top pick
Probability 53%
Odds 2.19
Show model details
Implied probability 45.7%
Bet quality Medium
Draw
Probability 25.3%
Odds 3.60
Show model details
Implied probability 27.8%
Bet quality Low
Home Win
Probability 21.7%
Odds 3.35
Show model details
Implied probability 29.9%
Bet quality Low
Totals 8 markets
Under 2.5
Probability 48.4%
Odds 2.27
Show model details
Implied probability 44.1%
Bet quality Medium
Over 2.5
Probability 51.6%
Odds 1.73
Show model details
Implied probability 57.8%
Bet quality Low
Under 3.5 Value pick
Probability 70.1%
Odds 1.53
Show model details
Implied probability 65.4%
Bet quality Medium
Under 1.5
Probability 24.2%
Odds 4.69
Show model details
Implied probability 21.3%
Bet quality Medium
Over 3.5
Probability 29.9%
Odds 2.85
Show model details
Implied probability 35.1%
Bet quality Low
Under 0.5
Probability 7.1%
Odds 15.00
Show model details
Implied probability 6.7%
Bet quality Low
Over 0.5 Best in group
Probability 92.9%
Odds 1.04
Show model details
Implied probability 96.2%
Bet quality Low
Over 1.5
Probability 75.8%
Odds 1.22
Show model details
Implied probability 82%
Bet quality Low
BTTS 2 markets
BTTS No
Probability 44.7%
Odds 2.51
Show model details
Implied probability 39.8%
Bet quality Medium
BTTS Yes Best in group
Probability 55.4%
Odds 1.58
Show model details
Implied probability 63.3%
Bet quality Low
Asian Handicap 2 markets
AH Home 0
Probability 21.7%
Odds 2.49
Show model details
Implied probability 40.2%
Bet quality Low
AH Away 0 Best in group
Probability 53%
Odds 1.58
Show model details
Implied probability 63.3%
Bet quality Low
Other Markets 2 markets
Double Chance 1X
Probability 47%
Odds 1.75
Show model details
Implied probability 57.1%
Bet quality Low
Double Chance X2 Top pick
Probability 78.3%
Odds 1.36
Show model details
Implied probability 73.5%
Bet quality Medium

Predictions are model estimates based on data, not guaranteed outcomes. 18+ — please play responsibly.

Value pick of the night · Under 1.5
EXC – GRO @ 4.69
+13.7%
Edge
Forecast →