Match NEC Nijmegen vs Groningen November 9, 2025 — Result and Stats on Prognosist

Post-match · 90 sec read

AI picks Over 2.5 at 1.72 — +9.7% better than the market.

NEC Nijmegen hosts Groningen with a clear quality edge and home momentum despite mixed recent form. NEC's attacking strength faces a sturdy Groningen defense, but the home side's sharper offensive edge and compact block should create chances. The pace hints at a moderately open game, with over 2.5 goals likely given NEC's ability to press and exploit set-pieces.

Home advantage with a pressing edge
NEC's attack vs Groningen's defense
Moderate tempo favoring goal opportunities

P Recap generated by AI · 6 markets graded

Pick of the night · settled · Over 2.5

Over 2.5 @ 1.72 ✗ Lost

AI 64% Implied 58% −1.00u

−100%

ROI on stake

⛀ Lineups

NIJ 4-2-3-1 · GRO 4-2-3-1

NIJ · 4-2-3-1 4-2-3-1 · GRO

18 Ogawa

📊 Statistics

NIJ 2 – 0 GRO

56%

Possession (%)

44%

1.47

Expected Goals (xG) expected goals

1.28

Total Shots

Shots on Target

Shots off Target

Shots Inside Box

Corner Kicks

Offsides

Fouls

75%

Pass Accuracy (%)

72%

Yellow Cards

Goalkeeper Saves

Match recap

NEC Nijmegen beat Groningen 2–0 at home. At half-time it was 0–0.

In possession, the hosts ran the game with 56% of the ball. From set pieces, the hosts won the corner count, 9 to 3. At the back, the hosts leaned on their goalkeeper for 4 saves.

Model audit for this match: of 17 graded markets, 8 landed and 9 missed, for a net -3.99 units (Brier 0.160).

⚖ Bet recap · markets settled

17 · 8 W · 9 L

Market	Odds	Closed	AI	Result	P/L · 1u
Over 2.5	1.72	—	64%	Lost	−1.00	Miss
Over 3.5	2.70	—	43%	Lost	−1.00	Miss
Home Win	1.96	—	57%	Cashed	+0.96	Cashed
BTTS Yes	1.62	—	62%	Lost	−1.00	Miss
BTTS No	2.30	—	38%	Cashed	+1.30	Cashed
Double Chance X2	1.90	—	43%	Lost	−1.00	Miss
Under 2.5	2.21	—	36%	Cashed	+1.21	Cashed
AH Away 0	2.80	—	19%	Lost	−1.00	Miss
Double Chance 1X	1.30	—	81%	Cashed	+0.30	Cashed
Under 3.5	1.50	—	57%	Cashed	+0.50	Cashed
AH Home 0	1.46	—	57%	Cashed	+0.46	Cashed
Over 1.5	1.23	—	83%	Cashed	+0.23	Cashed
Over 0.5	1.05	—	95%	Cashed	+0.05	Cashed
Draw	3.90	—	23%	Lost	−1.00	Miss
Under 1.5	4.50	—	17%	Lost	−1.00	Miss
Away Win	3.75	—	19%	Lost	−1.00	Miss
Under 0.5	15.50	—	5%	Lost	−1.00	Miss
Total · 17 markets @ 1u each	—	—	—	8 W · 9 L	−3.99u	−23% ROI