Manchester United vs Aston Villa 3:1

Post-match · 90 sec read

AI picks Home Win at 1.77 — +9.9% better than the market.

Manchester United enter this clash with a clear quality edge and home momentum, boasting stronger recent form and a potent attack that challenges Villa's defense. Their compact block and set-piece threat at Old Trafford could prove decisive. Aston Villa's defensive resilience might limit chances, but their offensive struggles away suggest a tough outing.

Home advantage with a pressing edge
Superior recent form and attacking efficiency
Villa's defensive solidity tested by United's offense

P Recap generated by AI · 6 markets graded

Pick of the night · settled · Home Win

Home Win @ 1.77 ✓ Cashed

AI 62% Implied 57% +0.77u

+77%

ROI on stake

Lineups

MUN 4-2-3-1 · AST 4-2-3-1

MUN · 4-2-3-1 4-2-3-1 · AST

19 Mbeumo

Subs used · MUN

75'

Sesko ↑ ·

Mbeumo ↓

90+1'

Ugarte ↑ ·

Casemiro ↓

Subs used · AST

60'

Abraham ↑ ·

Watkins ↓

61'

Bailey ↑ ·

McGinn ↓

82'

Luiz ↑ ·

Barkley ↓

82'

Maatsen ↑ ·

Digne ↓

86'

Garcia ↑ ·

Buendia ↓

Statistics

MUN 3 – 1 AST

53%

Possession (%)

47%

1.07

Expected Goals (xG) expected goals

1.02

Total Shots

Shots on Target

Shots off Target

Shots Inside Box

Corner Kicks

Offsides

Fouls

85%

Pass Accuracy (%)

85%

Yellow Cards

Goalkeeper Saves

Match events

16 · 3 – 1

41'

▮

Ollie Watkins

Yellow Card

Half-time · 0 – 0

Casemiro

Assist · B. Fernandes · 1–0

⚽

53'

Casemiro

Yellow Card

▮

60'

⇄

T. Abraham ↓ · O. Watkins ↑

Substitution 1

61'

⇄

L. Bailey ↓ · J. McGinn ↑

Substitution 2

64'

⚽

R. Barkley

1–1

69'

▮

Emiliano Buendía

Yellow Card

M. Cunha

Assist · B. Fernandes · 2–1

⚽

71'

Leny Yoro

Yellow Card

▮

72'

B. Sesko ↓ · B. Mbeumo ↑

Substitution 1

⇄

75'

B. Sesko

3–1

⚽

81'

82'

⇄

Douglas Luiz ↓ · R. Barkley ↑

Substitution 3

82'

⇄

I. Maatsen ↓ · L. Digne ↑

Substitution 4

86'

⇄

A. Garcia ↓ · E. Buendia ↑

Substitution 5

M. Ugarte ↓ · Casemiro ↑

Substitution 2

⇄

90+1'

Harry Maguire

Yellow Card

▮

90+6'

Full-time · 3 – 1

Match recap

Manchester United beat Aston Villa 3–1 at home. At half-time it was 0–0.

In attack, the hosts carried the greater threat — 16 shots to 9, 6 on target. In front of goal, the hosts were clinical, scoring 3 from 1.07 expected goals. For discipline, the referee produced 5 yellow cards.

On the scoresheet: Casemiro (53'), R. Barkley (64'), M. Cunha (71'), B. Sesko (81').

Model audit for this match: of 17 graded markets, 8 landed and 9 missed, for a net -4.28 units (Brier 0.132).

Bet recap · markets settled

17 · 8 W · 9 L

Market	Odds	Closed	AI	Result	P/L · 1u
Home Win	1.77	—	62%	Cashed	+0.77	Cashed
BTTS No	2.32	—	43%	Lost	−1.00	Miss
Under 2.5	2.28	—	43%	Lost	−1.00	Miss
Over 2.5	1.73	—	57%	Cashed	+0.73	Cashed
Over 3.5	2.70	—	35%	Cashed	+1.70	Cashed
BTTS Yes	1.67	—	57%	Cashed	+0.67	Cashed
Double Chance X2	2.21	—	38%	Lost	−1.00	Miss
Double Chance 1X	1.24	—	84%	Cashed	+0.24	Cashed
Under 3.5	1.51	—	65%	Lost	−1.00	Miss
AH Home 0	1.33	—	62%	Cashed	+0.33	Cashed
Over 0.5	1.05	—	94%	Cashed	+0.05	Cashed
Over 1.5	1.23	—	79%	Cashed	+0.23	Cashed
Draw	4.37	—	22%	Lost	−1.00	Miss
Under 1.5	4.50	—	21%	Lost	−1.00	Miss
Under 0.5	16.00	—	6%	Lost	−1.00	Miss
Away Win	4.52	—	16%	Lost	−1.00	Miss
AH Away 0	3.50	—	16%	Lost	−1.00	Miss
Total · 17 markets @ 1u each	—	—	—	8 W · 9 L	−4.28u	−25% ROI

Manchester United vs Aston Villa 3:1: Match Review & Stats

Model verdict

⛀ Lineups

📊 Statistics

⏱ Match events

Match recap

⚖ Bet recap · markets settled

Lineups

Statistics

Match events

Bet recap · markets settled