Sparta Rotterdam vs Ajax: Ajax hold a clear advantage in overall level and recent output, even away from home. Sparta’s willingness to play can open lanes for Ajax to generate pressure and sustained chance volume. The hosts still carry a route via set-pieces and transitions, but baseline modeling tilts to the visitors with a modest lean to higher totals driven by Ajax’s attacking quality.
Sparta Rotterdam and Ajax drew 3–3. At half-time it was 1–1.
In possession, the visitors ran the game with 67% of the ball. For accuracy, the visitors completed 88% of their passes. For discipline, the referee produced 3 yellow cards.
Model audit for this match: of 7 graded markets, 5 landed and 2 missed, for a net +4.06 units (Brier 0.248).
| Market | Odds | Closed | AI | Result | P/L · 1u | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Away Win | 1.95 | — | 55% | Lost | −1.00 | Miss |
| Double Chance X2 | 1.29 | — | 77% | Cashed | +0.29 | Cashed |
| Over 2.5 | 1.60 | — | 61% | Cashed | +0.60 | Cashed |
| Over 3.5 | 2.55 | — | 38% | Cashed | +1.55 | Cashed |
| BTTS Yes | 1.60 | — | 57% | Cashed | +0.60 | Cashed |
| Draw | 4.02 | — | 22% | Cashed | +3.02 | Cashed |
| Home Win | 3.87 | — | 23% | Lost | −1.00 | Miss |
| Total · 7 markets @ 1u each | — | — | — | 5 W · 2 L | +4.06u | +58% ROI |
