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Home Portugal Primeira Liga Nacional — Alverca

Predictions Nacional vs Alverca April 18, 2026 — Predictions and Probabilities

Nacional
Nacional
Home · last 5 W W L L W
Kick-off
Sat 18 Apr · 14:30
1:0
Full-time
Alverca
Alverca
L W L D L Away · last 5
Referee Miguel Nogueira, Portugal
Home Win · NAC
35%
Best 2.25
Draw
26%
Best 3.35
Away Win · ALV
39%
Best 3.10
Value pick
Double Chance X2
@ 1.67
Fair odds
1.55
book 1.67 · +8.0% vs market
Bookmakers polled
4
distinct bookmakers
Pick confidence
Medium
p 65% · EV +8.0%

Match predictions

Simple model predictions for the main markets. Advanced model details are available below.

Most likely outcomes show what the model expects to happen. A betting pick also considers bookmaker prices, so it can differ from the most likely outcome.

Estimated probability — model's view. Implied probability — back-solved from the best book price. Bet quality: High Medium Low
FT Results 3 markets
Home Win
Probability 35.3%
Odds 2.28
Show model details
Implied probability 43.9%
Bet quality Low
Away Win Best in group
Probability 38.6%
Odds 3.26
Show model details
Implied probability 30.7%
Bet quality Medium
Draw
Probability 26.1%
Odds 3.50
Show model details
Implied probability 28.6%
Bet quality Low
Totals 8 markets
Under 2.5 Value pick
Probability 55%
Odds 1.97
Show model details
Implied probability 50.8%
Bet quality Medium
Over 2.5
Probability 45%
Odds 1.92
Show model details
Implied probability 52.1%
Bet quality Low
Under 1.5
Probability 29.7%
Odds 3.75
Show model details
Implied probability 26.7%
Bet quality Medium
Under 3.5
Probability 75.5%
Odds 1.37
Show model details
Implied probability 73%
Bet quality Low
Under 0.5
Probability 9.5%
Odds 11.00
Show model details
Implied probability 9.1%
Bet quality Low
Over 0.5 Best in group
Probability 90.5%
Odds 1.06
Show model details
Implied probability 94.3%
Bet quality Low
Over 1.5
Probability 70.3%
Odds 1.30
Show model details
Implied probability 76.9%
Bet quality Low
Over 3.5
Probability 24.5%
Odds 3.25
Show model details
Implied probability 30.8%
Bet quality Low
BTTS 2 markets
BTTS No Top pick
Probability 50.2%
Odds 2.10
Show model details
Implied probability 47.6%
Bet quality Medium
BTTS Yes
Probability 49.8%
Odds 1.71
Show model details
Implied probability 58.5%
Bet quality Low
Asian Handicap 2 markets
AH Away 0 Best in group
Probability 38.6%
Odds 2.35
Show model details
Implied probability 42.6%
Bet quality Low
AH Home 0
Probability 35.3%
Odds 1.62
Show model details
Implied probability 61.7%
Bet quality Low
Other Markets 2 markets
Double Chance X2 Top pick
Probability 64.7%
Odds 1.67
Show model details
Implied probability 59.9%
Bet quality Medium
Double Chance 1X
Probability 61.4%
Odds 1.38
Show model details
Implied probability 72.5%
Bet quality Medium

Predictions are model estimates based on data, not guaranteed outcomes. 18+ — please play responsibly.