Match Arouca vs Estoril April 6, 2026 — Result and Stats on Prognosist

Post-match · 90 sec read

AI picks Under 2.5 at 2.11 — +8.1% better than the market.

Primeira Liga Clash: Arouca vs Estoril

Estoril arrives with a clear quality edge and a sharper attack, likely to test Arouca's defense. Despite Arouca's home ground advantage, their recent form shows inconsistency, while Estoril's momentum is steadier. The tactical battle may hinge on Estoril's ability to exploit defensive gaps and maintain pressure, with a moderate pace expected given balanced goal odds.

Estoril's offensive edge against Arouca's defense
Home side's patchy recent form
Moderate tempo suggests tactical discipline over wild open play

P Recap generated by AI · 6 markets graded

Pick of the night · settled · Under 2.5

Under 2.5 @ 2.11 ✗ Lost

AI 51% Implied 47% −1.00u

−100%

ROI on stake

⛀ Lineups

ARO 4-2-3-1 · EST 4-3-1-2

ARO · 4-2-3-1 4-3-1-2 · EST

17 Barbero ⚽

Subs used · ARO

77'

Puche ↑ ·

Gozalbez ↓

83'

Santos ↑ ·

Barbero ↓

83'

Mansilla ↑ ·

Fukui ↓

90'

Mayulu ↑ ·

Djouahra ↓

90'

Flores ↑ ·

Lee ↓

Subs used · EST

65'

Pizzi ↑ ·

Carvalho ↓

65'

Marques ↑ ·

Xeka ↓

65'

Carvalho ↑ ·

Amaral ↓

74'

Peixinho ↑ ·

Lacximicant ↓

📊 Statistics

ARO 3 – 2 EST

46%

Possession (%)

54%

1.98

Expected Goals (xG) expected goals

1.16

Total Shots

Shots on Target

Shots off Target

Shots Inside Box

Corner Kicks

Offsides

Fouls

82%

Pass Accuracy (%)

83%

Yellow Cards

Goalkeeper Saves

⏱ Match events

19 · 3 – 2

⚽

Xeka

Assist · J. Carvalho · 0–1

I. Barbero

Assist · N. Djouahra · 1–1

⚽

13'

23'

▮

Jordan Holsgrove

Yellow Card

32'

⚽

Y. Begraoui

Assist · A. Lacximicant · 1–2

J. Fontan

Assist · I. Barbero · 2–2

⚽

45'

Half-time · 2 – 2

P. Gozalbez

Assist · Tiago Esgaio · 3–2

⚽

55'

Pablo Gozálbez

Yellow Card

▮

56'

65'

⇄

Pizzi ↓ · J. Carvalho ↑

Substitution 1

65'

⇄

A. Marques ↓ · Xeka ↑

Substitution 2

65'

⇄

P. Carvalho ↓ · P. Amaral ↑

Substitution 3

71'

▮

André Lacximicant

Yellow Card

74'

⇄

Peixinho ↓ · A. Lacximicant ↑

Substitution 4

Puche ↓ · P. Gozalbez ↑

Substitution 1

⇄

77'

Pedro Santos ↓ · I. Barbero ↑

Substitution 2

⇄

83'

B. Mansilla ↓ · T. Fukui ↑

Substitution 3

⇄

83'

F. Mayulu ↓ · N. Djouahra ↑

Substitution 4

⇄

90'

M. Flores ↓ · H. Lee ↑

Substitution 5

⇄

90'

Ignacio de Arruabarrena

Yellow Card

▮

90+1'

Miguel Puche

Yellow Card

▮

90+7'

Full-time · 3 – 2

Match recap

Arouca beat Estoril 3–2 at home. At half-time it was 2–2.

On the balance of chances, the hosts held the expected-goals edge, 1.98 to 1.16. For discipline, the referee produced 5 yellow cards.

On the scoresheet: Xeka (3'), I. Barbero (13'), Y. Begraoui (32'), J. Fontan (45'), P. Gozalbez (55').

Model audit for this match: of 17 graded markets, 8 landed and 9 missed, for a net -2.36 units (Brier 0.251).

⚖ Bet recap · markets settled

17 · 8 W · 9 L

Market	Odds	Closed	AI	Result	P/L · 1u
Away Win	2.75	—	44%	Lost	−1.00	Miss
Under 2.5	2.11	—	51%	Lost	−1.00	Miss
BTTS No	2.30	—	47%	Lost	−1.00	Miss
AH Away 0	2.04	—	44%	Lost	−1.00	Miss
Over 2.5	1.80	—	49%	Cashed	+0.80	Cashed
BTTS Yes	1.62	—	53%	Cashed	+0.62	Cashed
Home Win	2.58	—	30%	Cashed	+1.58	Cashed
AH Home 0	1.88	—	30%	Cashed	+0.88	Cashed
Double Chance X2	1.54	—	70%	Lost	−1.00	Miss
Under 3.5	1.44	—	72%	Lost	−1.00	Miss
Under 1.5	4.15	—	27%	Lost	−1.00	Miss
Double Chance 1X	1.50	—	56%	Cashed	+0.50	Cashed
Over 3.5	2.95	—	28%	Cashed	+1.95	Cashed
Under 0.5	13.00	—	8%	Lost	−1.00	Miss
Over 0.5	1.05	—	92%	Cashed	+0.05	Cashed
Over 1.5	1.26	—	73%	Cashed	+0.26	Cashed
Draw	3.65	—	25%	Lost	−1.00	Miss
Total · 17 markets @ 1u each	—	—	—	8 W · 9 L	−2.36u	−14% ROI