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Home › Portugal › Primeira Liga › Arouca — Estoril

Predictions by Market: Arouca vs Estoril

Portugal   /   Primeira Liga Value pick inside
Arouca
Arouca
Home · last 5 W L D W W
Kick-off
Mon 06 Apr · 17:45
3:2
Full-time
Estoril
Estoril
L L D D L Away · last 5
Estádio Municipal de Arouca · Aruca Referee Antonio Nobre, Portugal

Outcome probabilities

Home Win · ARO
30%
Best 2.44
Draw
25%
Best 3.50
Away Win · EST
44%
Best 2.70
Value pick
Under 1.5
@ 4.15
Fair odds
3.75
book 4.15 · +10.6% vs market
Bookmakers polled
4
distinct bookmakers
Pick confidence
Medium
p 27% · EV +10.6%

Value pick isn't the most likely outcome — Over 1.5 is more likely (73%), but Under 1.5 is priced above the model's fair odds.

Match predictions

Simple model predictions for the main markets. Advanced model details are available below.

Most likely outcomes show what the model expects to happen. A betting pick also considers bookmaker prices, so it can differ from the most likely outcome.

Estimated probability — model's view. Implied probability — back-solved from the best book price. Bet quality: High Medium Low
FT Results 3 markets
✓ Away Win Best in group
Probability 44.3%
Odds 2.75
Show model details
Implied probability 36.4%
Bet quality Medium
✓ Home Win
Probability 30.4%
Odds 2.58
Show model details
Implied probability 38.8%
Bet quality Low
✓ Draw
Probability 25.3%
Odds 3.65
Show model details
Implied probability 27.4%
Bet quality Low
Totals 8 markets
✓ Under 2.5 Value pick
Probability 51.2%
Odds 2.11
Show model details
Implied probability 47.4%
Bet quality Medium
✓ Over 2.5
Probability 48.8%
Odds 1.80
Show model details
Implied probability 55.6%
Bet quality Low
✓ Under 3.5
Probability 72.3%
Odds 1.44
Show model details
Implied probability 69.4%
Bet quality Medium
✓ Under 1.5
Probability 26.7%
Odds 4.15
Show model details
Implied probability 24.1%
Bet quality Medium
✓ Over 3.5
Probability 27.7%
Odds 2.95
Show model details
Implied probability 33.9%
Bet quality Low
✓ Under 0.5
Probability 8.1%
Odds 13.00
Show model details
Implied probability 7.7%
Bet quality Low
✓ Over 0.5 Best in group
Probability 91.9%
Odds 1.05
Show model details
Implied probability 95.2%
Bet quality Low
✓ Over 1.5
Probability 73.3%
Odds 1.26
Show model details
Implied probability 79.4%
Bet quality Low
BTTS 2 markets
✓ BTTS No
Probability 47.1%
Odds 2.30
Show model details
Implied probability 43.5%
Bet quality Medium
✓ BTTS Yes Best in group
Probability 52.9%
Odds 1.62
Show model details
Implied probability 61.7%
Bet quality Low
Asian Handicap 2 markets
✓ AH Away 0 Best in group
Probability 44.3%
Odds 2.04
Show model details
Implied probability 49%
Bet quality Low
✓ AH Home 0
Probability 30.4%
Odds 1.88
Show model details
Implied probability 53.2%
Bet quality Low
Other Markets 2 markets
✓ Double Chance X2 Top pick
Probability 69.6%
Odds 1.54
Show model details
Implied probability 64.9%
Bet quality Medium
✓ Double Chance 1X
Probability 55.7%
Odds 1.50
Show model details
Implied probability 66.7%
Bet quality Low

Predictions are model estimates based on data, not guaranteed outcomes. 18+ — please play responsibly.

Value pick of the night · Under 1.5
ARO – EST @ 4.15
+10.6%
Edge
Forecast →