P
Prognosist
P
Home Portugal Primeira Liga Moreirense — Arouca

Predictions Moreirense vs Arouca March 21, 2026 — Predictions and Probabilities

Portugal   /   Primeira Liga Value pick inside
Moreirense
Moreirense
Home · last 5 W L W L D
Kick-off
Sat 21 Mar · 15:30
0:1
Full-time
Arouca
Arouca
W L D W W Away · last 5
Parque Desportivo Comendador Joaquim de Almeida Freitas · Moreira de Cónegos Referee Joao Antonio Ferreira Goncalves, Portugal
Home Win · MOR
45%
Best 2.40
Draw
27%
Best 3.15
Away Win · ARO
28%
Best 3.00
Value pick
Under 2.5
@ 1.75
Fair odds
1.55
book 1.75 · +13.0% vs market
Bookmakers polled
4
distinct bookmakers
Pick confidence
High
p 65% · EV +13.0%

Match predictions

Simple model predictions for the main markets. Advanced model details are available below.

Most likely outcomes show what the model expects to happen. A betting pick also considers bookmaker prices, so it can differ from the most likely outcome.

Estimated probability — model's view. Implied probability — back-solved from the best book price. Bet quality: High Medium Low
FT Results 3 markets
Home Win Best in group
Probability 45.1%
Odds 2.50
Show model details
Implied probability 40%
Bet quality Medium
Away Win
Probability 28%
Odds 3.20
Show model details
Implied probability 31.3%
Bet quality Low
Draw
Probability 26.9%
Odds 3.35
Show model details
Implied probability 29.9%
Bet quality Low
Totals 8 markets
Under 2.5 Value pick
Probability 64.6%
Odds 1.75
Show model details
Implied probability 57.1%
Bet quality High
Over 2.5
Probability 35.4%
Odds 2.18
Show model details
Implied probability 45.9%
Bet quality Low
Under 1.5
Probability 38.8%
Odds 3.16
Show model details
Implied probability 31.7%
Bet quality Medium
Under 0.5
Probability 13.9%
Odds 8.50
Show model details
Implied probability 11.8%
Bet quality Medium
Under 3.5
Probability 82.3%
Odds 1.27
Show model details
Implied probability 78.7%
Bet quality Medium
Over 0.5 Best in group
Probability 86.1%
Odds 1.09
Show model details
Implied probability 91.7%
Bet quality Low
Over 1.5
Probability 61.2%
Odds 1.39
Show model details
Implied probability 71.9%
Bet quality Low
Over 3.5
Probability 17.7%
Odds 3.85
Show model details
Implied probability 26%
Bet quality Low
BTTS 2 markets
BTTS No Value pick
Probability 58.5%
Odds 1.91
Show model details
Implied probability 52.4%
Bet quality High
BTTS Yes
Probability 41.5%
Odds 1.91
Show model details
Implied probability 52.4%
Bet quality Low
Asian Handicap 2 markets
AH Home 0 Best in group
Probability 45.1%
Odds 1.81
Show model details
Implied probability 55.3%
Bet quality Low
AH Away 0
Probability 28%
Odds 2.16
Show model details
Implied probability 46.3%
Bet quality Low
Other Markets 2 markets
Double Chance 1X Top pick
Probability 72%
Odds 1.42
Show model details
Implied probability 70.4%
Bet quality Medium
Double Chance X2
Probability 54.9%
Odds 1.57
Show model details
Implied probability 63.7%
Bet quality Low

Predictions are model estimates based on data, not guaranteed outcomes. 18+ — please play responsibly.

Value pick of the night · Under 2.5
MOR – ARO @ 1.75
+13.0%
Edge
Forecast →