Match Moreirense vs Arouca March 21, 2026 — Result and Stats on Prognosist

Post-match · 90 sec read

AI picks Under 2.5 at 1.75 — +13.0% better than the market.

Moreirense holds a slight quality edge and benefits from a mild home advantage, suggesting they can control the tempo at Parque Joaquim de Almeida Freitas. Their defensive solidity contrasts with Arouca’s more vulnerable backline, while both sides show similar attacking potential. Recent form favors Moreirense slightly, hinting at home momentum despite mixed results.

Home defensive resilience vs away attacking pressure
Moderate home edge shaping match rhythm
Close quality gap with slight form advantage

P Recap generated by AI · 6 markets graded

Pick of the night · settled · Under 2.5

Under 2.5 @ 1.75 ✓ Cashed

AI 65% Implied 57% +0.75u

+75%

ROI on stake

⛀ Lineups

MOR 4-3-3 · ARO 4-2-3-1

MOR · 4-3-3 4-2-3-1 · ARO

10 Bondoso

Subs used · MOR

58'

Gower ↑ ·

Alanzinho ↓

58'

Landerson ↑ ·

Kiko ↓

75'

Monteiro ↑ ·

Santos ↓

82'

Rodri ↑ ·

John ↓

Subs used · ARO

53'

Puche ↑ ·

Nandin ↓

73'

Mansilla ↑ ·

Gozalbez ↓

86'

Dante ↑ ·

Kuipers ↓

86'

Santos ↑ ·

Lee ↓

86'

Santiago Perez ↑ ·

Fukui ↓

📊 Statistics

MOR 0 – 1 ARO

49%

Possession (%)

51%

0.59

Expected Goals (xG) expected goals

1.69

Total Shots

Shots on Target

Shots off Target

Shots Inside Box

Corner Kicks

Offsides

Fouls

83%

Pass Accuracy (%)

84%

Yellow Cards

Goalkeeper Saves

⏱ Match events

13 · 0 – 1

34'

▮

Dylan Nandín

Yellow Card

Maracás

Yellow Card

▮

39'

Half-time · 0 – 0

53'

⇄

Puche ↓ · D. Nandin ↑

Substitution 1

J. Gower ↓ · Alanzinho ↑

Substitution 1

⇄

58'

Landerson ↓ · Kiko ↑

Substitution 2

⇄

58'

67'

⚽

Puche

0–1

70'

▮

Pablo Gozálbez

Yellow Card

73'

⇄

B. Mansilla ↓ · P. Gozalbez ↑

Substitution 2

Kevyn Monteiro ↓ · L. Santos ↑

Substitution 3

⇄

75'

Rodri ↓ · N. John ↑

Substitution 4

⇄

82'

86'

⇄

A. Dante ↓ · B. Kuipers ↑

Substitution 3

86'

⇄

Pedro Santos ↓ · H. Lee ↑

Substitution 4

86'

⇄

J. Santiago Perez ↓ · T. Fukui ↑

Substitution 5

Full-time · 0 – 1

Match recap

Arouca won 1–0 away at Moreirense. At half-time it was 0–0.

On the balance of chances, the visitors held the expected-goals edge, 1.69 to 0.59. In attack, the visitors carried the greater threat — 14 shots to 7, 2 on target. From set pieces, the visitors won the corner count, 7 to 3. For discipline, the referee produced 3 yellow cards.

On the scoresheet: Puche (67').

Model audit for this match: of 17 graded markets, 8 landed and 9 missed, for a net -0.89 units (Brier 0.217).

⚖ Bet recap · markets settled

17 · 8 W · 9 L

Market	Odds	Closed	AI	Result	P/L · 1u
Under 2.5	1.75	—	65%	Cashed	+0.75	Cashed
BTTS No	1.91	—	59%	Cashed	+0.91	Cashed
Home Win	2.50	—	45%	Lost	−1.00	Miss
AH Home 0	1.81	—	45%	Lost	−1.00	Miss
BTTS Yes	1.91	—	41%	Lost	−1.00	Miss
Over 2.5	2.18	—	35%	Lost	−1.00	Miss
AH Away 0	2.16	—	28%	Cashed	+1.16	Cashed
Under 1.5	3.16	—	39%	Cashed	+2.16	Cashed
Double Chance 1X	1.42	—	72%	Lost	−1.00	Miss
Under 0.5	8.50	—	14%	Lost	−1.00	Miss
Under 3.5	1.27	—	82%	Cashed	+0.27	Cashed
Away Win	3.20	—	28%	Cashed	+2.20	Cashed
Double Chance X2	1.57	—	55%	Cashed	+0.57	Cashed
Over 0.5	1.09	—	86%	Cashed	+0.09	Cashed
Draw	3.35	—	27%	Lost	−1.00	Miss
Over 1.5	1.39	—	61%	Lost	−1.00	Miss
Over 3.5	3.85	—	18%	Lost	−1.00	Miss
Total · 17 markets @ 1u each	—	—	—	8 W · 9 L	−0.89u	−5% ROI