Match Rio Ave vs Estrela March 15, 2026 — Result and Stats on Prognosist

Post-match · 90 sec read

AI picks Under 2.5 at 1.84 — +13.7% better than the market.

P Recap generated by AI · 6 markets graded

Pick of the night · settled · Under 2.5

Under 2.5 @ 1.84 ✗ Lost

AI 62% Implied 54% −1.00u

−100%

ROI on stake

⛀ Lineups

RIO 4-2-3-1 · EST 4-2-3-1

RIO · 4-2-3-1 4-2-3-1 · EST

11 Blesa ⚽

Subs used · RIO

58'

Guilherme ↑ ·

Pohlmann ↓

75'

Tome ↑ ·

Spikic ↓

75'

Monteiro ↑ ·

Abbey ↓

88'

Liavas ↑ ·

Bezerra ↓

89'

Petrasso ↑ ·

Blesa ↓

Subs used · EST

54'

Robinho ↑ ·

Stoica ↓

54'

Doue ↑ ·

Otavio ↓

83'

Antonetti ↑ ·

Scholze ↓

89'

Kalley ↑ ·

Langa ↓

89'

Moustier ↑ ·

Patrick ↓

📊 Statistics

RIO 2 – 1 EST

44%

Possession (%)

56%

2.75

Expected Goals (xG) expected goals

1.34

Total Shots

Shots on Target

Shots off Target

Shots Inside Box

Corner Kicks

Offsides

Fouls

83%

Pass Accuracy (%)

84%

Yellow Cards

Goalkeeper Saves

⏱ Match events

19 · 2 – 1

Jakub Brabec

Yellow Card

▮

15'

▮

Max Scholze

Yellow Card

J. Blesa

Assist · D. Spikic · 1–0

⚽

27'

Ole Pohlmann

Yellow Card

▮

45+1'

Half-time · 1 – 0

J. Blesa

Assist · D. Spikic · 2–0

⚽

48'

54'

⇄

Robinho ↓ · I. Stoica ↑

Substitution 1

54'

⇄

G. Doue ↓ · Otavio ↑

Substitution 2

Ryan Guilherme ↓ · O. Pohlmann ↑

Substitution 1

⇄

58'

65'

⚽

Rodrigo Pinho

Assist · Robinho · 2–1

Ennio Van Der Gouw

Yellow Card

▮

67'

Ryan Guilherme

Yellow Card

▮

68'

J. Tome ↓ · D. Spikic ↑

Substitution 2

⇄

75'

T. Monteiro ↓ · N. Abbey ↑

Substitution 3

⇄

75'

80'

▮

Eddy Doué

Yellow Card

83'

⇄

L. Antonetti ↓ · M. Scholze ↑

Substitution 3

G. Liavas ↓ · Diogo Bezerra ↑

Substitution 4

⇄

88'

F. Petrasso ↓ · J. Blesa ↑

Substitution 5

⇄

89'

⇄

Y. Kalley ↓ · B. Langa ↑

Substitution 4

89'

⇄

T. Moustier ↓ · Luan Patrick ↑

Substitution 5

Full-time · 2 – 1

Match recap

Rio Ave beat Estrela 2–1 at home. At half-time it was 1–0.

In possession, the visitors ran the game with 56% of the ball. On the balance of chances, the hosts held the expected-goals edge, 2.75 to 1.34. In attack, the hosts carried the greater threat — 18 shots to 11, 6 on target. From set pieces, the hosts won the corner count, 10 to 4. At the back, the visitors leaned on their goalkeeper for 4 saves. For discipline, the referee produced 6 yellow cards.

On the scoresheet: J. Blesa (27'), J. Blesa (48'), Rodrigo Pinho (65').

Model audit for this match: of 17 graded markets, 8 landed and 9 missed, for a net -3.73 units (Brier 0.213).

⚖ Bet recap · markets settled

17 · 8 W · 9 L

Market	Odds	Closed	AI	Result	P/L · 1u
BTTS No	2.08	—	56%	Lost	−1.00	Miss
Under 2.5	1.84	—	62%	Lost	−1.00	Miss
Double Chance X2	1.65	—	66%	Lost	−1.00	Miss
AH Away 0	2.30	—	40%	Lost	−1.00	Miss
BTTS Yes	1.87	—	44%	Cashed	+0.87	Cashed
Home Win	2.45	—	34%	Cashed	+1.45	Cashed
Over 2.5	2.12	—	38%	Cashed	+1.12	Cashed
AH Home 0	1.69	—	34%	Cashed	+0.69	Cashed
Away Win	3.17	—	40%	Lost	−1.00	Miss
Under 1.5	3.45	—	36%	Lost	−1.00	Miss
Under 0.5	10.00	—	12%	Lost	−1.00	Miss
Under 3.5	1.32	—	80%	Cashed	+0.32	Cashed
Double Chance 1X	1.39	—	60%	Cashed	+0.39	Cashed
Over 0.5	1.08	—	88%	Cashed	+0.08	Cashed
Draw	3.47	—	27%	Lost	−1.00	Miss
Over 1.5	1.35	—	64%	Cashed	+0.35	Cashed
Over 3.5	3.65	—	20%	Lost	−1.00	Miss
Total · 17 markets @ 1u each	—	—	—	8 W · 9 L	−3.73u	−22% ROI