Match Wolves vs Aston Villa February 27, 2026 — Result and Stats on Prognosist

Post-match · 90 sec read

AI picks Under 2.5 at 2.03 — +14.9% better than the market.

Aston Villa arrives at Molineux with a clear quality edge and better recent form, suggesting they hold the upper hand despite Wolves' home advantage. Villa's sharper attack against Wolves' leaky defense could unlock scoring chances, while Wolves' compact block and pressing may limit the visitors' rhythm. The pace hints at a moderately open game, but Wolves' struggles to convert chances and Villa's momentum favor an away win.

Villa's offensive edge vs Wolves' defense
Wolves' home pressing vs Villa's form
Moderate tempo with scoring opportunities

P Recap generated by AI · 6 markets graded

Pick of the night · settled · Under 2.5

Under 2.5 @ 2.03 ✓ Cashed

AI 57% Implied 49% +1.03u

+103%

ROI on stake

⛀ Lineups

WOL 3-4-2-1 · AST 4-2-3-1

WOL · 3-4-2-1 4-2-3-1 · AST

9 Armstrong

Subs used · WOL

81'

Arokodare ↑ ·

Bellegarde ↓

89'

Gomes ↑ ·

Andre ↓

90+3'

Gomes ↑ ·

Armstrong ↓

Subs used · AST

60'

Barkley ↑ ·

Luiz ↓

60'

Bailey ↑ ·

Sancho ↓

70'

Abraham ↑ ·

Buendia ↓

70'

Maatsen ↑ ·

Digne ↓

86'

Alysson ↑ ·

Watkins ↓

📊 Statistics

WOL 2 – 0 AST

39%

Possession (%)

61%

0.98

Expected Goals (xG) expected goals

1.06

Total Shots

Shots on Target

Shots off Target

Shots Inside Box

Corner Kicks

Offsides

Fouls

79%

Pass Accuracy (%)

88%

Yellow Cards

Goalkeeper Saves

⏱ Match events

16 · 2 – 0

Yerson Mosquera

Yellow Card

▮

45+1'

Half-time · 0 – 0

Adam Armstrong

Yellow Card

▮

51'

54'

▮

Emiliano Buendía

Yellow Card

Jean-Ricner Bellegarde

Yellow Card

▮

58'

60'

⇄

R. Barkley ↓ · Douglas Luiz ↑

Substitution 1

60'

⇄

L. Bailey ↓ · J. Sancho ↑

Substitution 2

Joao Gomes

Assist · A. Armstrong · 1–0

⚽

61'

70'

⇄

T. Abraham ↓ · E. Buendia ↑

Substitution 3

70'

⇄

I. Maatsen ↓ · L. Digne ↑

Substitution 4

75'

▮

Leon Bailey

Yellow Card

T. Arokodare ↓ · J. Bellegarde ↑

Substitution 1

⇄

81'

86'

⇄

Alysson ↓ · O. Watkins ↑

Substitution 5

A. Gomes ↓ · Andre ↑

Substitution 2

⇄

89'

R. Gomes

2–0

⚽

90'

90+2'

▮

Matty Cash

Yellow Card

R. Gomes ↓ · A. Armstrong ↑

Substitution 3

⇄

90+3'

Full-time · 2 – 0

Match recap

Wolves beat Aston Villa 2–0 at home. At half-time it was 0–0.

In possession, the visitors ran the game with 61% of the ball. For accuracy, the visitors completed 88% of their passes. In attack, the visitors carried the greater threat — 14 shots to 9, 5 on target. From set pieces, the visitors won the corner count, 5 to 0. At the back, the hosts leaned on their goalkeeper for 4 saves. For discipline, the referee produced 6 yellow cards.

On the scoresheet: Joao Gomes (61'), R. Gomes (90').

Model audit for this match: of 17 graded markets, 8 landed and 9 missed, for a net -0.05 units (Brier 0.250).

⚖ Bet recap · markets settled

17 · 8 W · 9 L

Market	Odds	Closed	AI	Result	P/L · 1u
Under 2.5	2.03	—	57%	Cashed	+1.03	Cashed
Away Win	1.95	—	58%	Lost	−1.00	Miss
BTTS No	2.10	—	53%	Cashed	+1.10	Cashed
BTTS Yes	1.80	—	47%	Lost	−1.00	Miss
Over 2.5	1.92	—	43%	Lost	−1.00	Miss
Double Chance 1X	1.95	—	42%	Cashed	+0.95	Cashed
Under 1.5	4.00	—	31%	Lost	−1.00	Miss
AH Away 0	1.43	—	58%	Lost	−1.00	Miss
Under 0.5	12.80	—	10%	Lost	−1.00	Miss
Under 3.5	1.38	—	77%	Cashed	+0.38	Cashed
Double Chance X2	1.28	—	82%	Lost	−1.00	Miss
Over 0.5	1.06	—	90%	Cashed	+0.06	Cashed
Draw	3.90	—	24%	Lost	−1.00	Miss
Over 1.5	1.30	—	69%	Cashed	+0.30	Cashed
AH Home 0	3.01	—	18%	Cashed	+2.01	Cashed
Over 3.5	3.27	—	23%	Lost	−1.00	Miss
Home Win	4.12	—	18%	Cashed	+3.12	Cashed
Total · 17 markets @ 1u each	—	—	—	8 W · 9 L	−0.05u	−0% ROI