SC Braga vs Guimaraes 3:2 — Match Review & Stats

Post-match · 90 sec read

AI picks Over 3.5 at 3.25 — +9.6% better than the market.

SC Braga enters this clash with a clear quality edge and solid home momentum, boasting a strong attacking profile against Guimaraes' less resilient defense. Their recent form shows resilience and goal threat, while Guimaraes struggles for consistency away. Expect Braga to leverage their compact block and set-piece threat to control the pace and pressure.

Home side's offensive edge against away defense
Better recent form and home confidence
Moderate goal environment suggests balanced attacking play

P Recap generated by AI · 6 markets graded

Pick of the night · settled · Over 3.5

Over 3.5 @ 3.25 ✓ Cashed

AI 34% Implied 31% +2.25u

+225%

ROI on stake

Lineups

BRA 3-4-3 · GUI 4-2-3-1

BRA · 3-4-3 4-2-3-1 · GUI

10 Zalazar ⚽

Subs used · BRA

69'

Moscardo ↑ ·

Moutinho ↓

69'

Navarro ↑ ·

Victor ↓

90+3'

Lelo ↑ ·

Rodrigues ↓

Subs used · GUI

61'

Camara ↑ ·

Gustavo ↓

61'

Ndoye ↑ ·

Oliveira ↓

77'

Arcanjo ↑ ·

Sousa ↓

77'

Nogueira ↑ ·

Samu ↓

84'

Mitrovic ↑ ·

Beni ↓

Statistics

BRA 3 – 2 GUI

46%

Possession (%)

54%

2.48

Expected Goals (xG) expected goals

1.27

Total Shots

Shots on Target

Shots off Target

Shots Inside Box

Corner Kicks

Offsides

Fouls

81%

Pass Accuracy (%)

86%

Yellow Cards

Goalkeeper Saves

Match events

18 · 3 – 2

14'

▮

Thiago Balieiro

Yellow Card

R. Zalazar (P)

Penalty · 1–0

⚽

17'

19'

⚽

A. Barisic

Own goal · 1–1

R. Horta

Assist · R. Zalazar · 2–1

⚽

32'

Half-time · 2 – 1

54'

⚽

Gustavo

Assist · N. Saviolo · 2–2

R. Zalazar

Assist · R. Horta · 3–2

⚽

57'

61'

⇄

O. Camara ↓ · Gustavo ↑

Substitution 1

61'

⇄

A. Ndoye ↓ · N. Oliveira ↑

Substitution 2

Gabriel Moscardo ↓ · J. Moutinho ↑

Substitution 1

⇄

69'

F. Navarro ↓ · P. Victor ↑

Substitution 2

⇄

69'

77'

⇄

T. Arcanjo ↓ · D. Sousa ↑

Substitution 3

77'

⇄

G. Nogueira ↓ · Samu ↑

Substitution 4

78'

▮

Noah Saviolo

Yellow Card

Ricardo Horta

Yellow Card

▮

79'

84'

⇄

M. Mitrovic ↓ · Beni ↑

Substitution 5

88'

▮

Miguel Nóbrega

Yellow Card

Gabriel Moscardo

Yellow Card

▮

90'

L. Lelo ↓ · D. Rodrigues ↑

Substitution 3

⇄

90+3'

Full-time · 3 – 2

Match recap

SC Braga beat Guimaraes 3–2 at home. At half-time it was 2–1.

On the balance of chances, the hosts held the expected-goals edge, 2.48 to 1.27. For discipline, the referee produced 5 yellow cards.

On the scoresheet: R. Zalazar (17'), A. Barisic (19'), R. Horta (32'), Gustavo (54'), R. Zalazar (57').

Model audit for this match: of 17 graded markets, 8 landed and 9 missed, for a net -3.50 units (Brier 0.134).

Bet recap · markets settled

17 · 8 W · 9 L

Market	Odds	Closed	AI	Result	P/L · 1u
Home Win	1.62	—	66%	Cashed	+0.62	Cashed
Over 2.5	1.92	—	56%	Cashed	+0.92	Cashed
BTTS Yes	1.95	—	52%	Cashed	+0.95	Cashed
BTTS No	1.91	—	48%	Lost	−1.00	Miss
Under 2.5	1.98	—	44%	Lost	−1.00	Miss
Double Chance X2	2.42	—	34%	Lost	−1.00	Miss
Over 3.5	3.25	—	34%	Cashed	+2.25	Cashed
Double Chance 1X	1.17	—	88%	Cashed	+0.17	Cashed
AH Home 0	1.23	—	66%	Cashed	+0.23	Cashed
Over 1.5	1.30	—	78%	Cashed	+0.30	Cashed
Over 0.5	1.06	—	93%	Cashed	+0.06	Cashed
Draw	4.21	—	22%	Lost	−1.00	Miss
Under 3.5	1.37	—	66%	Lost	−1.00	Miss
Under 1.5	3.75	—	22%	Lost	−1.00	Miss
Under 0.5	11.60	—	7%	Lost	−1.00	Miss
Away Win	6.00	—	12%	Lost	−1.00	Miss
AH Away 0	4.40	—	12%	Lost	−1.00	Miss
Total · 17 markets @ 1u each	—	—	—	8 W · 9 L	−3.50u	−21% ROI

SC Braga vs Guimaraes 3:2: Match Review & Stats

Model verdict

⛀ Lineups

📊 Statistics

⏱ Match events

Match recap

⚖ Bet recap · markets settled

Lineups

Statistics

Match events

Bet recap · markets settled