P
Prognosist
P
⚽ Football 📈 Forecasts
Football Portugal Primeira Liga Sporting CP — Nacional

Match Sporting CP vs Nacional February 1, 2026

Portugal   /   Primeira Liga Value pick inside
Sporting CP
Sporting CP
Home · last 5 D D W W W
Kick-off
Sun 01 Feb · 18:00
2:1
Full-time
Nacional
Nacional
W W L L W Away · last 5
Estádio José Alvalade · Lisbon Referee Ricardo Baixinho, Portugal
Hit
BTTS Yes
BTTS Yes
AI 53% · book 2.32
Miss
Over 3.5
Over 3.5
AI 53% · book 2.10
Hit
Under 3.5
Under 3.5
AI 47% · book 1.88
Total goals
3
2 · 1
xG (open play)
1.74 – 1.33
Δ +0.41
Possession
62% – 38%
AI accuracy
8 / 17
picks cashed
Post-match · 90 sec read

AI picks Over 3.5 at 2.10 — +10.3% better than the market.

Sporting CP hosts Nacional with a clear quality edge and strong home momentum, having won four and drawn one of their last five. Their potent attack faces a Nacional defense that struggles to contain pressure, suggesting Sporting’s pressing edge could unlock chances early. Nacional’s inconsistent form and lower offensive threat hint at a challenging night ahead, while the match pace leans towards an open game with multiple goal opportunities.

  • Home side’s solid defensive record supports control of the game tempo.
  • Sporting’s offensive firepower likely to exploit Nacional’s defensive gaps.
  • Recent form favors Sporting’s confidence and tactical cohesion.

P Recap generated by AI · 6 markets graded
Pick of the night · settled · Over 3.5
Over 3.5 @ 2.10 ✗ Lost
AI 53% Implied 48% −1.00u
−100%
ROI on stake

Lineups

SPO 4-2-3-1 · NAC 5-4-1
Subs used · SPO
64' Faye ↑ · Guilherme
64' Trincao ↑ · Simoes
80' Kochorashvili ↑ · Goncalves
80' Santos ↑ · Catamo
Subs used · NAC
65' Witi ↑ · Boia
80' Junior ↑ · Veron
80' Labidi ↑ · Silva
90+2' Sousa ↑ · Liziero
90+2' Joao ↑ · Ramirez

📊 Statistics

SPO 21 NAC
62%
Possession (%)
38%
1.74
Expected Goals (xG) expected goals
1.33
16
Total Shots
5
7
Shots on Target
4
6
Shots off Target
1
11
Shots Inside Box
3
11
Corner Kicks
0
3
Offsides
2
12
Fouls
15
85%
Pass Accuracy (%)
79%
0
Yellow Cards
3
2
Goalkeeper Saves
5

Match events

15 · 2 – 1
28'
Léo Santos
Yellow Card
Half-time · 0 – 0
55'
Ze Vitor
Yellow Card
S. Faye ↓ · Luis Guilherme ↑
Substitution 1
64'
Trincao ↓ · J. Simoes ↑
Substitution 2
64'
65'
Witi ↓ · Paulinho Boia ↑
Substitution 1
P. Goncalves
1–0
72'
76'
A. Nunez
1–1
G. Kochorashvili ↓ · P. Goncalves ↑
Substitution 3
80'
Alisson Santos ↓ · G. Catamo ↑
Substitution 4
80'
80'
Daniel Junior ↓ · Gabriel Veron ↑
Substitution 2
80'
C. Labidi ↓ · J. Silva ↑
Substitution 3
87'
Alan Núñez
Yellow Card
L. Suarez
Assist · Alisson Santos · 2–1
90'
90+2'
A. Sousa ↓ · Liziero ↑
Substitution 4
90+2'
L. Joao ↓ · J. Ramirez ↑
Substitution 5
Full-time · 2 – 1

Bet recap · markets settled

17 · 8 W · 9 L
Market Odds Closed AI Result P/L · 1u
BTTS Yes 2.32 53% Cashed +1.32 Cashed
Over 3.5 2.10 53% Lost −1.00 Miss
Under 3.5 1.88 47% Cashed +0.88 Cashed
BTTS No 1.75 47% Lost −1.00 Miss
Over 2.5 1.44 73% Cashed +0.44 Cashed
Draw 11.30 12% Lost −1.00 Miss
Double Chance 1X 1.03 97% Cashed +0.03 Cashed
Home Win 1.15 86% Cashed +0.15 Cashed
AH Home 0 1.02 86% Cashed +0.02 Cashed
Under 2.5 3.15 27% Lost −1.00 Miss
Double Chance X2 7.10 14% Lost −1.00 Miss
Over 1.5 1.13 88% Cashed +0.13 Cashed
Over 0.5 1.03 97% Cashed +0.03 Cashed
Under 1.5 6.81 12% Lost −1.00 Miss
Away Win 26.00 3% Lost −1.00 Miss
Under 0.5 21.00 3% Lost −1.00 Miss
AH Away 0 12.50 3% Lost −1.00 Miss
Total · 17 markets @ 1u each 8 W · 9 L −6.00u −35% ROI
Best bet of the night · Over 3.5
SPO – NAC @ 2.10
+10.3%
Edge
Forecast →