Match Sporting CP vs Nacional February 1, 2026 — Result and Stats on Prognosist

Post-match · 90 sec read

AI picks Over 3.5 at 2.10 — +10.3% better than the market.

Sporting CP hosts Nacional with a clear quality edge and strong home momentum, having won four and drawn one of their last five. Their potent attack faces a Nacional defense that struggles to contain pressure, suggesting Sporting’s pressing edge could unlock chances early. Nacional’s inconsistent form and lower offensive threat hint at a challenging night ahead, while the match pace leans towards an open game with multiple goal opportunities.

Home side’s solid defensive record supports control of the game tempo.
Sporting’s offensive firepower likely to exploit Nacional’s defensive gaps.
Recent form favors Sporting’s confidence and tactical cohesion.

P Recap generated by AI · 6 markets graded

Pick of the night · settled · Over 3.5

Over 3.5 @ 2.10 ✗ Lost

AI 53% Implied 48% −1.00u

−100%

ROI on stake

⛀ Lineups

SPO 4-2-3-1 · NAC 5-4-1

SPO · 4-2-3-1 5-4-1 · NAC

97 Suárez ⚽

Subs used · SPO

64'

Faye ↑ ·

Guilherme ↓

64'

Trincao ↑ ·

Simoes ↓

80'

Kochorashvili ↑ ·

Goncalves ↓

80'

Santos ↑ ·

Catamo ↓

Subs used · NAC

65'

Witi ↑ ·

Boia ↓

80'

Junior ↑ ·

Veron ↓

80'

Labidi ↑ ·

Silva ↓

90+2'

Sousa ↑ ·

Liziero ↓

90+2'

Joao ↑ ·

Ramirez ↓

📊 Statistics

SPO 2 – 1 NAC

62%

Possession (%)

38%

1.74

Expected Goals (xG) expected goals

1.33

Total Shots

Shots on Target

Shots off Target

Shots Inside Box

Corner Kicks

Offsides

Fouls

85%

Pass Accuracy (%)

79%

Yellow Cards

Goalkeeper Saves

⏱ Match events

15 · 2 – 1

28'

▮

Léo Santos

Yellow Card

Half-time · 0 – 0

55'

▮

Ze Vitor

Yellow Card

S. Faye ↓ · Luis Guilherme ↑

Substitution 1

⇄

64'

Trincao ↓ · J. Simoes ↑

Substitution 2

⇄

64'

65'

⇄

Witi ↓ · Paulinho Boia ↑

Substitution 1

P. Goncalves

1–0

⚽

72'

76'

⚽

A. Nunez

1–1

G. Kochorashvili ↓ · P. Goncalves ↑

Substitution 3

⇄

80'

Alisson Santos ↓ · G. Catamo ↑

Substitution 4

⇄

80'

⇄

Daniel Junior ↓ · Gabriel Veron ↑

Substitution 2

80'

⇄

C. Labidi ↓ · J. Silva ↑

Substitution 3

87'

▮

Alan Núñez

Yellow Card

L. Suarez

Assist · Alisson Santos · 2–1

⚽

90'

90+2'

⇄

A. Sousa ↓ · Liziero ↑

Substitution 4

90+2'

⇄

L. Joao ↓ · J. Ramirez ↑

Substitution 5

Full-time · 2 – 1

Match recap

Sporting CP beat Nacional 2–1 at home. At half-time it was 0–0.

In possession, the hosts ran the game with 62% of the ball. In attack, the hosts carried the greater threat — 16 shots to 5, 7 on target. From set pieces, the hosts won the corner count, 11 to 0. At the back, the visitors leaned on their goalkeeper for 5 saves. For discipline, the referee produced 3 yellow cards.

On the scoresheet: P. Goncalves (72'), A. Nunez (76'), L. Suarez (90').

Model audit for this match: of 17 graded markets, 8 landed and 9 missed, for a net -6.00 units (Brier 0.074).

⚖ Bet recap · markets settled

17 · 8 W · 9 L

Market	Odds	Closed	AI	Result	P/L · 1u
BTTS Yes	2.32	—	53%	Cashed	+1.32	Cashed
Over 3.5	2.10	—	53%	Lost	−1.00	Miss
Under 3.5	1.88	—	47%	Cashed	+0.88	Cashed
BTTS No	1.75	—	47%	Lost	−1.00	Miss
Over 2.5	1.44	—	73%	Cashed	+0.44	Cashed
Draw	11.30	—	12%	Lost	−1.00	Miss
Double Chance 1X	1.03	—	97%	Cashed	+0.03	Cashed
Home Win	1.15	—	86%	Cashed	+0.15	Cashed
AH Home 0	1.02	—	86%	Cashed	+0.02	Cashed
Under 2.5	3.15	—	27%	Lost	−1.00	Miss
Double Chance X2	7.10	—	14%	Lost	−1.00	Miss
Over 1.5	1.13	—	88%	Cashed	+0.13	Cashed
Over 0.5	1.03	—	97%	Cashed	+0.03	Cashed
Under 1.5	6.81	—	12%	Lost	−1.00	Miss
Away Win	26.00	—	3%	Lost	−1.00	Miss
Under 0.5	21.00	—	3%	Lost	−1.00	Miss
AH Away 0	12.50	—	3%	Lost	−1.00	Miss
Total · 17 markets @ 1u each	—	—	—	8 W · 9 L	−6.00u	−35% ROI