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⚽ Football 📈 Forecasts
Football Portugal Primeira Liga Guimaraes — Nacional

Match Guimaraes vs Nacional January 2, 2026

Guimaraes
Guimaraes
Home · last 5 W W L L L
Kick-off
Fri 02 Jan · 20:45
2:1
Full-time
Nacional
Nacional
W W L L W Away · last 5
Estádio Dom Afonso Henriques · Guimarães Referee Andre Filipe Domingues Narciso, Portugal
Miss
Under 2.5
Under 2.5
AI 58% · book 1.79
Miss
BTTS No
BTTS No
AI 53% · book 1.94
Hit
Home Win
Home Win
AI 51% · book 1.96
Total goals
3
2 · 1
xG (open play)
0.87 – 1.50
Δ −0.63
Possession
57% – 43%
AI accuracy
8 / 17
picks cashed
Post-match · 90 sec read

Guimaraes holds a slight quality edge and benefits from a moderate home advantage, suggesting a controlled tempo at Estádio Dom Afonso Henriques. Their defensive solidity contrasts with Nacional's sharper attack, hinting at a tactical battle where Guimaraes may absorb pressure and strike on the break. Recent form favors Guimaraes, who have shown resilience and momentum, while Nacional's inconsistency could limit their threat.

  • Home defensive compactness vs away offensive intent
  • Guimaraes' recent positive form
  • Moderate home edge shaping match rhythm

P Recap generated by AI · 6 markets graded

Lineups

GUI 4-2-3-1 · NAC 4-2-3-1
Subs used · GUI
46' Sousa ↑ · Samu
59' Ndoye ↑ · Oliveira
60' Camara ↑ · Arcanjo
67' Strata ↑ · Maga
90' Blanco ↑ · Saviolo
Subs used · NAC
60' Labidi ↑ · Baeza
60' Ruan ↑ · Junior
66' Goncalves ↑ · Santos
76' Joao ↑ · Liziero
76' Vallier ↑ · Gomes

📊 Statistics

GUI 21 NAC
57%
Possession (%)
43%
0.87
Expected Goals (xG) expected goals
1.50
9
Total Shots
14
4
Shots on Target
4
3
Shots off Target
7
7
Shots Inside Box
9
2
Corner Kicks
3
3
Offsides
2
20
Fouls
18
83%
Pass Accuracy (%)
75%
0
Yellow Cards
2
3
Goalkeeper Saves
2

Match events

17 · 2 – 1
25'
Kaique
Yellow Card
36'
Daniel Júnior
Yellow Card
Half-time · 0 – 0
D. Sousa ↓ · Samu ↑
Substitution 1
46'
A. Ndoye ↓ · N. Oliveira ↑
Substitution 2
59'
O. Camara ↓ · T. Arcanjo ↑
Substitution 3
60'
60'
C. Labidi ↓ · M. Baeza ↑
Substitution 1
60'
Pablo Ruan ↓ · Daniel Junior ↑
Substitution 2
66'
C. Goncalves ↓ · Leo Santos ↑
Substitution 3
T. Strata ↓ · Maga ↑
Substitution 4
67'
N. Saviolo
Assist · T. Strata · 1–0
70'
76'
L. Joao ↓ · Liziero ↑
Substitution 4
76'
L. Vallier ↓ · Jose Gomes ↑
Substitution 5
R. Abascal
Assist · N. Saviolo · 2–0
87'
F. Blanco ↓ · N. Saviolo ↑
Substitution 5
90'
90'
C. Labidi
Assist · L. Joao · 2–1
Tony Strata
Yellow Card
90+6'
90+6'
Lenny Vallier
Yellow Card
Full-time · 2 – 1

Bet recap · markets settled

17 · 8 W · 9 L
Market Odds Closed AI Result P/L · 1u
Under 2.5 1.79 58% Lost −1.00 Miss
BTTS No 1.94 53% Lost −1.00 Miss
Home Win 1.96 51% Cashed +0.96 Cashed
Double Chance X2 1.96 49% Lost −1.00 Miss
BTTS Yes 2.00 47% Cashed +1.00 Cashed
Over 2.5 2.17 42% Cashed +1.17 Cashed
Under 1.5 3.32 32% Lost −1.00 Miss
Double Chance 1X 1.25 76% Cashed +0.25 Cashed
AH Home 0 1.40 51% Cashed +0.40 Cashed
Away Win 4.33 24% Lost −1.00 Miss
Under 3.5 1.29 78% Cashed +0.29 Cashed
Under 0.5 9.00 11% Lost −1.00 Miss
Over 0.5 1.08 89% Cashed +0.08 Cashed
Over 1.5 1.37 68% Cashed +0.37 Cashed
Draw 3.61 25% Lost −1.00 Miss
Over 3.5 3.90 22% Lost −1.00 Miss
AH Away 0 3.45 24% Lost −1.00 Miss
Total · 17 markets @ 1u each 8 W · 9 L −4.48u −26% ROI