Match Estrela vs Arouca December 7, 2025 — Result and Stats on Prognosist

Post-match · 90 sec read

Estrela hosts Arouca in a Primeira Liga clash where the visitors hold a slight quality edge. Arouca’s defensive solidity contrasts with Estrela’s more potent attack, suggesting a tactical battle. Home momentum is moderate, while Arouca struggles for form, hinting at a tight contest. The odds favor a cautious game with under 2.5 goals likely, reflecting a compact defensive setup and limited goal-scoring chances.

Estrela’s home edge in attack vs Arouca’s defense
Arouca’s overall quality advantage
Recent form favors a low-tempo, tactical match

P Recap generated by AI · 6 markets graded

⛀ Lineups

EST 3-4-3 · ARO 4-3-3

EST · 3-4-3 4-3-3 · ARO

11 Cabral

Subs used · EST

68'

Pinho ↑ ·

Jovane ↓

73'

Robinho ↑ ·

Otavio ↓

73'

Encada ↑ ·

Ngom ↓

82'

Antonetti ↑ ·

Kikas ↓

82'

Meireles ↑ ·

Stoica ↓

Subs used · ARO

62'

Santos ↑ ·

van Ee ↓

73'

Lee ↑ ·

Trezza ↓

82'

Barbero ↑ ·

Nandin ↓

📊 Statistics

EST 3 – 1 ARO

63%

Possession (%)

37%

3.27

Expected Goals (xG) expected goals

0.48

Total Shots

Shots on Target

Shots off Target

Shots Inside Box

Corner Kicks

Offsides

Fouls

87%

Pass Accuracy (%)

75%

Yellow Cards

Goalkeeper Saves

⏱ Match events

19 · 3 – 1

28'

▮

Alex Pinto

Red Card

Kikas

Assist · I. Stoica · 1–0

⚽

29'

A. Marcus

Assist · I. Stoica · 2–0

⚽

34'

Oumar Ngom

Yellow Card

▮

45'

Half-time · 2 – 0

51'

▮

Espen Van Ee

Yellow Card

51'

▮

Naïs Djouahra

Yellow Card

59'

⚽

T. Fukui

2–1

62'

⇄

Pedro Santos ↓ · E. van Ee ↑

Substitution 1

68'

▮

Taichi Fukui

Red Card

Rodrigo Pinho ↓ · Jovane ↑

Substitution 1

⇄

68'

Robinho ↓ · Otavio ↑

Substitution 2

⇄

73'

J. Encada ↓ · O. Ngom ↑

Substitution 3

⇄

73'

⇄

H. Lee ↓ · A. Trezza ↑

Substitution 2

L. Antonetti ↓ · Kikas ↑

Substitution 4

⇄

82'

J. Meireles ↓ · I. Stoica ↑

Substitution 5

⇄

82'

⇄

I. Barbero ↓ · D. Nandin ↑

Substitution 3

85'

▮

Pedro Santos

Yellow Card

Rodrigo Pinho

Assist · J. Meireles · 3–1

⚽

89'

90+7'

▮

Hyun-ju Lee

Yellow Card

Full-time · 3 – 1

Match recap

Estrela beat Arouca 3–1 at home. At half-time it was 2–0.

In possession, the hosts ran the game with 63% of the ball. For accuracy, the hosts completed 87% of their passes. On the balance of chances, the hosts held the expected-goals edge, 3.27 to 0.48. In attack, the hosts carried the greater threat — 24 shots to 9, 9 on target. At the back, the visitors leaned on their goalkeeper for 6 saves. For discipline, the referee produced 5 yellow cards.

On the scoresheet: Kikas (29'), A. Marcus (34'), T. Fukui (59'), Rodrigo Pinho (89'). Alex Pinto was sent off in the 28' minute. Taichi Fukui was sent off in the 68' minute.

Model audit for this match: of 17 graded markets, 8 landed and 9 missed, for a net -1.08 units (Brier 0.263).

⚖ Bet recap · markets settled

17 · 8 W · 9 L

Market	Odds	Closed	AI	Result	P/L · 1u
Double Chance X2	1.72	—	64%	Lost	−1.00	Miss
BTTS No	1.95	—	55%	Lost	−1.00	Miss
Under 2.5	1.76	—	58%	Lost	−1.00	Miss
AH Away 0	2.52	—	37%	Lost	−1.00	Miss
Over 2.5	2.18	—	42%	Cashed	+1.18	Cashed
BTTS Yes	1.91	—	45%	Cashed	+0.91	Cashed
Home Win	2.29	—	36%	Cashed	+1.29	Cashed
AH Home 0	1.60	—	36%	Cashed	+0.60	Cashed
Away Win	3.51	—	37%	Lost	−1.00	Miss
Over 1.5	1.40	—	68%	Cashed	+0.40	Cashed
Double Chance 1X	1.35	—	63%	Cashed	+0.35	Cashed
Under 1.5	3.25	—	32%	Lost	−1.00	Miss
Under 3.5	1.27	—	78%	Lost	−1.00	Miss
Over 0.5	1.09	—	89%	Cashed	+0.09	Cashed
Under 0.5	8.50	—	11%	Lost	−1.00	Miss
Draw	3.32	—	28%	Lost	−1.00	Miss
Over 3.5	4.10	—	22%	Cashed	+3.10	Cashed
Total · 17 markets @ 1u each	—	—	—	8 W · 9 L	−1.08u	−6% ROI