Alverca vs Nacional 1:0 — Match Review & Stats

Post-match · 90 sec read

AI picks Double Chance 1X at 1.33 — +6.0% better than the market.

Alverca holds a clear quality edge and home momentum, supported by a stronger adjusted rating and better recent form. Their defensive solidity could stifle Nacional’s attack, which has been less effective away. Expect a tactical battle where Alverca’s compact block and set-piece threat may prove decisive. The pace hints at a moderately open game, but goals might be limited given both sides’ defensive discipline.

Home advantage with a solid defensive base
Alverca’s recent wins boost confidence
Nacional’s attack faces a tough test

P Recap generated by AI · 6 markets graded

Pick of the night · settled · Double Chance 1X

Double Chance 1X @ 1.33 ✓ Cashed

AI 80% Implied 75% +0.33u

+33%

ROI on stake

Lineups

ALV 3-4-3 · NAC 4-3-3

ALV · 3-4-3 4-3-3 · NAC

11 Nuozzi

Subs used · ALV

66'

Marezi ↑ ·

Lima ↓

66'

Figueiredo ↑ ·

Nuozzi ↓

85'

Gui ↑ ·

Abdulai ↓

85'

Lima ↑ ·

Lincoln ↓

90+2'

Baseya ↑ ·

Amorim ↓

Subs used · NAC

65'

Baeza ↑ ·

Labidi ↓

66'

Witi ↑ ·

Nourani ↓

89'

Joao ↑ ·

Vallier ↓

89'

Silva ↑ ·

Nunez ↓

90'

Deivison ↑ ·

Dias ↓

Statistics

ALV 1 – 0 NAC

50%

Possession (%)

50%

2.07

Expected Goals (xG) expected goals

0.92

Total Shots

Shots on Target

Shots off Target

Shots Inside Box

Corner Kicks

Offsides

Fouls

83%

Pass Accuracy (%)

83%

Yellow Cards

Goalkeeper Saves

Match events

13 · 1 – 0

Half-time · 0 – 0

65'

⇄

M. Baeza ↓ · C. Labidi ↑

Substitution 1

Marezi ↓ · Sandro Lima ↑

Substitution 1

⇄

66'

Figueiredo ↓ · C. Nuozzi ↑

Substitution 2

⇄

66'

⇄

Witi ↓ · M. Nourani ↑

Substitution 2

Nabil Touaizi

Yellow Card

▮

71'

D. Gui ↓ · S. Abdulai ↑

Substitution 3

⇄

85'

Felipe Lima ↓ · Lincoln ↑

Substitution 4

⇄

85'

Marezi

Assist · D. Gui · 1–0

⚽

88'

89'

⇄

L. Joao ↓ · L. Vallier ↑

Substitution 3

89'

⇄

J. Silva ↓ · A. Nunez ↑

Substitution 4

90'

⇄

Deivison ↓ · Matheus Dias ↑

Substitution 5

S. Baseya ↓ · Amorim ↑

Substitution 5

⇄

90+2'

90+3'

▮

Deivison Souza Brito

Yellow Card

Full-time · 1 – 0

Match recap

Alverca beat Nacional 1–0 at home. At half-time it was 0–0.

On the balance of chances, the hosts held the expected-goals edge, 2.07 to 0.92. In attack, the visitors carried the greater threat — 17 shots to 10, 3 on target.

On the scoresheet: Marezi (88').

Model audit for this match: of 17 graded markets, 8 landed and 9 missed, for a net -2.97 units (Brier 0.164).

Bet recap · markets settled

17 · 8 W · 9 L

Market	Odds	Closed	AI	Result	P/L · 1u
Home Win	2.26	—	52%	Cashed	+1.26	Cashed
Over 2.5	2.28	—	43%	Lost	−1.00	Miss
BTTS No	1.87	—	52%	Cashed	+0.87	Cashed
Under 2.5	1.69	—	57%	Cashed	+0.69	Cashed
BTTS Yes	2.00	—	48%	Lost	−1.00	Miss
Double Chance X2	1.72	—	48%	Lost	−1.00	Miss
AH Away 0	2.58	—	20%	Lost	−1.00	Miss
Double Chance 1X	1.33	—	80%	Cashed	+0.33	Cashed
Over 1.5	1.42	—	69%	Lost	−1.00	Miss
Under 1.5	3.00	—	31%	Cashed	+2.00	Cashed
AH Home 0	1.53	—	52%	Cashed	+0.53	Cashed
Over 0.5	1.10	—	90%	Cashed	+0.10	Cashed
Over 3.5	4.20	—	23%	Lost	−1.00	Miss
Under 3.5	1.25	—	77%	Cashed	+0.25	Cashed
Draw	3.30	—	27%	Lost	−1.00	Miss
Under 0.5	8.50	—	10%	Lost	−1.00	Miss
Away Win	3.65	—	20%	Lost	−1.00	Miss
Total · 17 markets @ 1u each	—	—	—	8 W · 9 L	−2.97u	−17% ROI

Alverca vs Nacional 1:0: Match Review & Stats

Model verdict

⛀ Lineups

📊 Statistics

⏱ Match events

Match recap

⚖ Bet recap · markets settled

Lineups

Statistics

Match events

Bet recap · markets settled