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Home › Portugal › Primeira Liga › Casa Pia — Estrela

Casa Pia vs Estrela 3:5: Match Review & Stats

Portugal   /   Primeira Liga Value pick inside
Casa Pia
Casa Pia
Home · last 5 L W D D W
Kick-off
Sat 01 Nov · 18:00
3:5
Full-time
Estrela
Estrela
L L L D D Away · last 5
Estádio Municipal de Rio Maior · Rio Maior Referee Helder Malheiro, Portugal
Hit
Double Chance X2
Double Chance X2
AI 61% · book 1.78 ✓
Miss
Under 2.5
Under 2.5
AI 66% · book 1.64 ✗
Miss
BTTS No
BTTS No
AI 60% · book 1.77 ✗
Total goals
8
3 · 5
xG (open play)
1.07 – 2.17
Δ −1.10
Possession
56% – 44%
AI accuracy
8 / 17
picks cashed

Model verdict

Post-match · 90 sec read

AI picks Under 1.5 at 2.90 — +13.0% better than the market.

Casa Pia vs Estrela Preview

Estrela holds a slight quality edge and better recent form, suggesting they arrive with more momentum. Casa Pia’s defensive solidity contrasts with Estrela’s sharper attack, setting a tactical battle between a compact home block and away pressing. The modest home edge hints at a balanced contest, while odds suggest a cautious pace with fewer goals expected.

  • Estrela’s attacking threat vs Casa Pia’s defense
  • Home side’s resilience and tactical discipline
  • Moderate tempo likely to limit scoring chances

Expect a tight game where defensive organization and set-piece moments could be decisive, with both sides cautious to avoid mistakes.

P Recap generated by AI · 6 markets graded
Pick of the night · settled · Under 1.5
Under 1.5 @ 2.90 ✗ Lost
AI 39% Implied 34% −1.00u
−100%
ROI on stake

Lineups

CAS 3-4-3 · EST 3-4-3
CAS · 3-4-3 3-4-3 · EST 1 Sequeira 27 Rocha 6 Fonte ⚽ 43 Sousa 72 Larrazabal 24 Mohamed ⚽ 74 Nhaga 18 Geraldes 29 Livolant 90 Cassiano ⚽ 7 Nsona 40 Ribeiro 30 Patrick 79 Chernev 83 Otavio 17 Encada 19 Moreira ⚽ 6 Ngom 55 Cabral ⚽ 99 Marcus 98 Kikas ⚽ 18 Meireles
Subs used · CAS
73' Rocha Livramento ↑ · Larrazabal ↓
73' Severina ↑ · Rocha ↓
78' Sousa ↑ · Mohamed ↓
79' Perez ↑ · Nhaga ↓
90' Benaissa-Yahia ↑ · Fonte ↓
Subs used · EST
55' Jovane ↑ · Meireles ↓
55' Montoia ↑ · Otavio ↓
71' Pinho ↑ · Kikas ↓
89' Robinho ↑ · Marcus ↓
89' Sola ↑ · Encada ↓

Statistics

CAS 3 – 5 EST
56%
Possession (%)
44%
1.07
Expected Goals (xG) expected goals
2.17
10
Total Shots
12
4
Shots on Target
6
3
Shots off Target
2
5
Shots Inside Box
7
5
Corner Kicks
2
0
Offsides
1
20
Fouls
21
82%
Pass Accuracy (%)
79%
2
Yellow Cards
3
1
Goalkeeper Saves
1

Match events

23 · 3 – 5
Cassiano
Assist · K. Nsona · 1–0
⚽
34'
36'
⚽
Kikas
Assist · A. Marcus · 1–1
45'
⚽
S. Cabral (P)
Penalty · 1–2
Half-time · 1 – 2
I. Mohamed
2–2
⚽
48'
53'
▮
Otavio
Yellow Card
55'
⇄
Jovane ↓ · J. Meireles ↑
Substitution 1
55'
⇄
G. Montoia ↓ · Otavio ↑
Substitution 2
Patrick Sequeira
Yellow Card
▮
61'
65'
⚽
S. Cabral (P)
Penalty · 2–3
67'
⚽
P. Moreira
Assist · Kikas · 2–4
71'
⇄
Rodrigo Pinho ↓ · Kikas ↑
Substitution 3
D. Rocha Livramento ↓ · G. Larrazabal ↑
Substitution 1
⇄
73'
X. Severina ↓ · Kaique Rocha ↑
Substitution 2
⇄
73'
74'
▮
Paulo Moreira
Yellow Card
José Fonte
Yellow Card
▮
75'
Miguel Sousa ↓ · I. Mohamed ↑
Substitution 3
⇄
78'
S. Perez ↓ · R. Nhaga ↑
Substitution 4
⇄
79'
82'
⚽
S. Cabral
Assist · O. Ngom · 2–5
J. Fonte
Assist · Miguel Sousa · 3–5
⚽
85'
89'
⇄
Robinho ↓ · A. Marcus ↑
Substitution 4
89'
⇄
A. Sola ↓ · J. Encada ↑
Substitution 5
F. Benaissa-Yahia ↓ · J. Fonte ↑
Substitution 5
⇄
90'
90+6'
▮
Alex Sola
Yellow Card
Full-time · 3 – 5

Match recap

Estrela won 5–3 away at Casa Pia. At half-time it was 1–2.

In possession, the hosts ran the game with 56% of the ball. On the balance of chances, the visitors held the expected-goals edge, 2.17 to 1.07. From set pieces, the hosts won the corner count, 5 to 2. In front of goal, the hosts were clinical, scoring 3 from 1.07 expected goals. For discipline, the referee produced 5 yellow cards.

On the scoresheet: Cassiano (34'), Kikas (36'), S. Cabral (45'), I. Mohamed (48'), S. Cabral (65'), P. Moreira (67'), S. Cabral (82'), J. Fonte (85').

Model audit for this match: of 17 graded markets, 8 landed and 9 missed, for a net +3.56 units (Brier 0.306).

Bet recap · markets settled

17 · 8 W · 9 L
Market Odds Closed AI Result P/L · 1u
Double Chance X2 1.78 — 61% Cashed +0.78 Cashed
Under 2.5 1.64 — 66% Lost −1.00 Miss
BTTS No 1.77 — 60% Lost −1.00 Miss
BTTS Yes 2.15 — 40% Cashed +1.15 Cashed
Home Win 2.15 — 39% Lost −1.00 Miss
Over 2.5 2.45 — 34% Cashed +1.45 Cashed
Under 1.5 2.90 — 39% Lost −1.00 Miss
Away Win 4.10 — 33% Cashed +3.10 Cashed
AH Away 0 2.90 — 33% Cashed +1.90 Cashed
Over 1.5 1.47 — 61% Cashed +0.47 Cashed
Double Chance 1X 1.30 — 67% Lost −1.00 Miss
Under 0.5 8.00 — 14% Lost −1.00 Miss
Under 3.5 1.22 — 83% Lost −1.00 Miss
Over 0.5 1.11 — 86% Cashed +0.11 Cashed
Draw 3.32 — 28% Lost −1.00 Miss
AH Home 0 1.48 — 39% Lost −1.00 Miss
Over 3.5 4.60 — 17% Cashed +3.60 Cashed
Total · 17 markets @ 1u each — — — 8 W · 9 L +3.56u +21% ROI
Value pick of the night · Under 1.5
CAS – EST @ 2.90
+13.0%
Edge
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