Match Athletic Club vs Sporting CP January 28, 2026 — Result and Stats
Kick-off
Wed 28 Jan · 20:00
2:3
Full-time
Referee Felix Zwayer, Germany
Hit
BTTS Yes
BTTS Yes
AI 44% · book 1.69
✓
Hit
Away Win
Away Win
AI 50% · book 3.60
✓
Hit
Double Chance X2
Double Chance X2
AI 77% · book 1.78
✓
xG (open play)
0.59 – 1.49
Δ −0.90
AI accuracy
7 / 13
picks cashed
Post-match · 90 sec read
AI picks Under 2.5 at 2.10 — +7.0% better than the market.
Athletic Club may look comfortable at home, but Sporting CP come in with sharper rhythm and a clear edge in how they control games without the ball. Expect the hosts to have spells of territory, yet Sporting’s structure and counter-attacking threat should create the cleaner chances over time. If Athletic don’t move the ball quickly enough, Sporting can squeeze the middle, force rushed decisions and punish turnovers. The away side are well placed to avoid defeat and have a strong path to the win if they take their chances.
P
Recap generated by AI · 6 markets graded
Pick of the night · settled · Under 2.5
Under 2.5 @ 2.10
✗ Lost
AI 51%
Implied 48%
−1.00u
⛀ Lineups
BIL 4-2-3-1 · SPO 4-2-3-1
📊 Statistics
BIL 2
– 3 SPO
0.59
Expected Goals (xG)
expected goals
1.49
74%
Pass Accuracy (%)
87%
Match recap
Sporting CP won 3–2 away at Athletic Club. At half-time it was 2–1.
In possession, the visitors ran the game with 65% of the ball. For accuracy, the visitors completed 87% of their passes. On the balance of chances, the visitors held the expected-goals edge, 1.49 to 0.59. In front of goal, the visitors were clinical, scoring 3 from 1.49 expected goals. For discipline, the referee produced 9 yellow cards.
Model audit for this match: of 13 graded markets, 7 landed and 6 missed, for a net +0.91 units (Brier 0.206).
⚖ Bet recap · markets settled
13 · 7 W · 6 L
| Market |
Odds |
Closed |
AI |
Result |
P/L · 1u |
|
| BTTS Yes |
1.69 |
— |
44% |
Cashed |
+0.69 |
Cashed
|
| Away Win |
3.60 |
— |
50% |
Cashed |
+2.60 |
Cashed
|
| Double Chance X2 |
1.78 |
— |
77% |
Cashed |
+0.78 |
Cashed
|
| AH Away 0 |
2.65 |
— |
50% |
Cashed |
+1.65 |
Cashed
|
| BTTS No |
2.25 |
— |
56% |
Lost |
−1.00 |
Miss
|
| Under 2.5 |
2.10 |
— |
51% |
Lost |
−1.00 |
Miss
|
| Under 3.5 |
1.42 |
— |
71% |
Lost |
−1.00 |
Miss
|
| Over 0.5 |
1.06 |
— |
92% |
Cashed |
+0.06 |
Cashed
|
| Over 1.5 |
1.27 |
— |
73% |
Cashed |
+0.27 |
Cashed
|
| Over 2.5 |
1.86 |
— |
49% |
Cashed |
+0.86 |
Cashed
|
| Double Chance 1X |
1.35 |
— |
51% |
Lost |
−1.00 |
Miss
|
| Draw |
3.65 |
— |
27% |
Lost |
−1.00 |
Miss
|
| Home Win |
2.16 |
— |
24% |
Lost |
−1.00 |
Miss
|
| Total · 13 markets @ 1u each |
— |
— |
— |
7 W · 6 L |
+0.91u |
+7% ROI |
