Match Ajax vs Olympiakos Piraeus January 28, 2026 — Result and Stats on Prognosist

Post-match · 90 sec read

At the Johan Cruijff Arena, this has the feel of a high-intensity European tie where Ajax will try to impose tempo and territory, but Olympiakos arrive with strong momentum and a clear plan to punish mistakes. Ajax should have long spells on the ball, yet the visitors look more reliable in key moments and can hurt them on counters and set pieces if the game opens up. The draw stands out as a live outcome in a match that could swing on a few decisive phases rather than one-sided control, with goals still very much on the table.

P Recap generated by AI · 6 markets graded

⛀ Lineups

AJA 4-2-3-1 · OLY 4-2-3-1

AJA · 4-2-3-1 4-2-3-1 · OLY

9 Dolberg

📊 Statistics

AJA 1 – 2 OLY

63%

Possession (%)

37%

1.84

Expected Goals (xG) expected goals

0.54

Total Shots

Shots on Target

Shots off Target

Shots Inside Box

Corner Kicks

Offsides

Fouls

85%

Pass Accuracy (%)

75%

Yellow Cards

Goalkeeper Saves

Match recap

Olympiakos Piraeus won 2–1 away at Ajax. At half-time it was 0–0.

In possession, the hosts ran the game with 63% of the ball. For accuracy, the hosts completed 85% of their passes. On the balance of chances, the hosts held the expected-goals edge, 1.84 to 0.54.

Model audit for this match: of 15 graded markets, 8 landed and 7 missed, for a net -2.09 units (Brier 0.164).

⚖ Bet recap · markets settled

15 · 8 W · 7 L

Market	Odds	Closed	AI	Result	P/L · 1u
Over 2.5	1.73	—	58%	Cashed	+0.73	Cashed
Draw	3.75	—	31%	Lost	−1.00	Miss
Double Chance X2	1.47	—	70%	Cashed	+0.47	Cashed
BTTS No	2.50	—	40%	Lost	−1.00	Miss
Over 3.5	2.75	—	36%	Lost	−1.00	Miss
Over 0.5	1.05	—	94%	Cashed	+0.05	Cashed
Away Win	2.52	—	39%	Cashed	+1.52	Cashed
Double Chance 1X	1.60	—	61%	Lost	−1.00	Miss
Under 2.5	2.28	—	42%	Lost	−1.00	Miss
Under 3.5	1.50	—	64%	Cashed	+0.50	Cashed
Over 1.5	1.23	—	78%	Cashed	+0.23	Cashed
BTTS Yes	1.57	—	60%	Cashed	+0.57	Cashed
Home Win	2.92	—	30%	Lost	−1.00	Miss
AH Away 0	1.84	—	39%	Cashed	+0.84	Cashed
AH Home 0	2.11	—	30%	Lost	−1.00	Miss
Total · 15 markets @ 1u each	—	—	—	8 W · 7 L	−2.09u	−14% ROI