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Home › World › UEFA Champions League › Benfica — Napoli

Predictions by Market: Benfica vs Napoli

Europe   /   UEFA Champions League Value pick inside
Benfica
Benfica
Home · last 5 W L W L L
Kick-off
Wed 10 Dec · 20:00
2:0
Full-time
Napoli
Napoli
D W L D L Away · last 5
Referee Slavko Vinčić, Slovenia

Outcome probabilities

Home Win · BEN
41%
Best 2.60
Draw
29%
Best 3.10
Away Win · NAP
30%
Best 2.88
Value pick
Over 3.5
@ 3.65
Fair odds
3.33
book 3.65 · +9.0% vs market
Bookmakers polled
4
distinct bookmakers
Pick confidence
Low
p 30% · EV +9.0%

Value pick isn't the most likely outcome — Under 3.5 is more likely (70%), but Over 3.5 is priced above the model's fair odds.

Match predictions

Simple model predictions for the main markets. Advanced model details are available below.

Most likely outcomes show what the model expects to happen. A betting pick also considers bookmaker prices, so it can differ from the most likely outcome.

Estimated probability — model's view. Implied probability — back-solved from the best book price. Bet quality: High Medium Low
FT Results 3 markets
✓ Home Win Best in group
Probability 41%
Odds 2.41
Show model details
Implied probability 41.5%
Bet quality Low
✓ Away Win
Probability 30%
Odds 3.28
Show model details
Implied probability 30.5%
Bet quality Low
✓ Draw
Probability 29%
Odds 3.39
Show model details
Implied probability 29.5%
Bet quality Low
Totals 8 markets
✓ Over 3.5
Probability 30%
Odds 3.65
Show model details
Implied probability 27.4%
Bet quality Low
✓ Over 0.5 Top pick
Probability 95%
Odds 1.08
Show model details
Implied probability 92.6%
Bet quality High
✓ Under 1.5
Probability 28%
Odds 3.65
Show model details
Implied probability 27.4%
Bet quality Low
✓ Over 2.5
Probability 48%
Odds 2.09
Show model details
Implied probability 47.8%
Bet quality Low
✓ Over 1.5
Probability 72%
Odds 1.37
Show model details
Implied probability 73%
Bet quality Medium
✓ Under 2.5
Probability 52%
Odds 1.88
Show model details
Implied probability 53.2%
Bet quality Low
✓ Under 3.5
Probability 70%
Odds 1.32
Show model details
Implied probability 75.8%
Bet quality Medium
✓ Under 0.5
Probability 5%
Odds 10.50
Show model details
Implied probability 9.5%
Bet quality Low
BTTS 2 markets
✓ BTTS Yes Best in group
Probability 55%
Odds 1.85
Show model details
Implied probability 54.1%
Bet quality Low
✓ BTTS No
Probability 45%
Odds 2.12
Show model details
Implied probability 47.2%
Bet quality Low
Asian Handicap 2 markets
✓ AH Home 0 Best in group
Probability 58%
Odds 1.72
Show model details
Implied probability 58.1%
Bet quality Low
✓ AH Away 0
Probability 42%
Odds 2.35
Show model details
Implied probability 42.6%
Bet quality Low
Other Markets 2 markets
✓ Double Chance X2
Probability 60%
Odds 1.66
Show model details
Implied probability 60.2%
Bet quality Medium
✓ Double Chance 1X Top pick
Probability 71%
Odds 1.39
Show model details
Implied probability 71.9%
Bet quality Medium

Predictions are model estimates based on data, not guaranteed outcomes. 18+ — please play responsibly.

Value pick of the night · Over 3.5
BEN – NAP @ 3.65
+9.0%
Edge
Forecast →