P
Prognosist
P
Home › World › UEFA Champions League › Napoli — Qarabag

Predictions by Market: Napoli vs Qarabag

Europe   /   UEFA Champions League Value pick inside
Napoli
Napoli
Home · last 5 D W L D L
Kick-off
Tue 25 Nov · 20:00
2:0
Full-time
Qarabag
Qarabag
L W L L L Away · last 5
Maradona Stadium · Naples Referee Szymon Marciniak, Poland

Outcome probabilities

Home Win · NAP
72%
Best 1.26
Draw
18%
Best 6.00
VALUE
Away Win · KAR
10%
Best 10.85
Value pick
Away Win
@ 11.10
Fair odds
10.00
book 11.10 · +11.0% vs market
Bookmakers polled
4
distinct bookmakers
Pick confidence
Low
p 10% · EV +11.0%

Value pick isn't the most likely outcome — Home Win is more likely (72%), but Away Win is priced above the model's fair odds.

Match predictions

Simple model predictions for the main markets. Advanced model details are available below.

Most likely outcomes show what the model expects to happen. A betting pick also considers bookmaker prices, so it can differ from the most likely outcome.

Estimated probability — model's view. Implied probability — back-solved from the best book price. Bet quality: High Medium Low
FT Results 3 markets
✓ Draw
Probability 18%
Odds 6.00
Show model details
Implied probability 16.7%
Bet quality Low
✓ Away Win Longshot value
Probability 10%
Odds 11.10
Show model details
Implied probability 9%
Bet quality Low
✓ Home Win Top pick
Probability 72%
Odds 1.33
Show model details
Implied probability 75.2%
Bet quality Medium
Totals 8 markets
✓ Under 3.5
Probability 62%
Odds 1.64
Show model details
Implied probability 61%
Bet quality Medium
✓ Over 1.5
Probability 86%
Odds 1.19
Show model details
Implied probability 84%
Bet quality High
✓ Over 2.5
Probability 63%
Odds 1.60
Show model details
Implied probability 62.5%
Bet quality Medium
✓ Over 0.5 Top pick
Probability 96%
Odds 1.04
Show model details
Implied probability 96.2%
Bet quality High
✓ Over 3.5
Probability 38%
Odds 2.47
Show model details
Implied probability 40.5%
Bet quality Low
✓ Under 2.5
Probability 37%
Odds 2.50
Show model details
Implied probability 40%
Bet quality Low
✓ Under 1.5
Probability 14%
Odds 5.50
Show model details
Implied probability 18.2%
Bet quality Low
✓ Under 0.5
Probability 4%
Odds 17.50
Show model details
Implied probability 5.7%
Bet quality Low
BTTS 2 markets
✓ BTTS Yes
Probability 48%
Odds 2.06
Show model details
Implied probability 48.5%
Bet quality Low
✓ BTTS No Top pick
Probability 52%
Odds 1.87
Show model details
Implied probability 53.5%
Bet quality Medium
Asian Handicap 2 markets
✓ AH Home 0 Top pick
Probability 72%
Odds 1.06
Show model details
Implied probability 94.3%
Bet quality Medium
✓ AH Away 0
Probability 10%
Odds 6.30
Show model details
Implied probability 15.9%
Bet quality Low
Other Markets 2 markets
✓ Double Chance X2
Probability 28%
Odds 3.84
Show model details
Implied probability 26%
Bet quality Low
✓ Double Chance 1X Top pick
Probability 90%
Odds 1.08
Show model details
Implied probability 92.6%
Bet quality High

Predictions are model estimates based on data, not guaranteed outcomes. 18+ — please play responsibly.

Value pick of the night · Away Win
NAP – KAR @ 11.10
+11.0%
Edge
Forecast →