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Home › World › UEFA Champions League › Borussia Dortmund — Villarreal

Predictions by Market: Borussia Dortmund vs Villarreal

Europe   /   UEFA Champions League Value pick inside
Borussia Dortmund
Borussia Dortmund
Home · last 5 D L L W L
Kick-off
Tue 25 Nov · 20:00
4:0
Full-time
Villarreal
Villarreal
L L L L L Away · last 5
Signal Iduna Park · Dortmund Referee Davide Massa, Italy

Outcome probabilities

Home Win · DOR
40%
Best 1.85
Draw
31%
Best 3.80
VALUE
Away Win · VIL
29%
Best 4.15
Value pick
Double Chance X2
@ 2.04
Fair odds
1.79
book 2.04 · +14.0% vs market
Bookmakers polled
4
distinct bookmakers
Pick confidence
Medium
p 56% · EV +14.0%

Value pick isn't the most likely outcome — Double Chance 1X is more likely (70%), but Double Chance X2 is priced above the model's fair odds.

Match predictions

Simple model predictions for the main markets. Advanced model details are available below.

Most likely outcomes show what the model expects to happen. A betting pick also considers bookmaker prices, so it can differ from the most likely outcome.

Estimated probability — model's view. Implied probability — back-solved from the best book price. Bet quality: High Medium Low
FT Results 3 markets
✓ Away Win Value pick
Probability 29%
Odds 4.33
Show model details
Implied probability 23.1%
Bet quality Low
✓ Draw
Probability 31%
Odds 4.05
Show model details
Implied probability 24.7%
Bet quality Low
✓ Home Win Best in group
Probability 40%
Odds 1.88
Show model details
Implied probability 53.2%
Bet quality Medium
Totals 8 markets
✓ Under 0.5 Longshot value
Probability 10%
Odds 15.00
Show model details
Implied probability 6.7%
Bet quality Low
✓ Under 1.5
Probability 30%
Odds 4.50
Show model details
Implied probability 22.2%
Bet quality Low
✓ Over 3.5
Probability 37%
Odds 2.85
Show model details
Implied probability 35.1%
Bet quality Medium
✓ Over 2.5
Probability 57%
Odds 1.79
Show model details
Implied probability 55.9%
Bet quality Medium
✓ Over 1.5
Probability 81%
Odds 1.24
Show model details
Implied probability 80.6%
Bet quality High
✓ Over 0.5 Top pick
Probability 95%
Odds 1.05
Show model details
Implied probability 95.2%
Bet quality High
✓ Under 2.5
Probability 43%
Odds 2.18
Show model details
Implied probability 45.9%
Bet quality Low
✓ Under 3.5
Probability 63%
Odds 1.47
Show model details
Implied probability 68%
Bet quality Medium
BTTS 2 markets
✓ BTTS Yes Top pick
Probability 60%
Odds 1.71
Show model details
Implied probability 58.5%
Bet quality Medium
✓ BTTS No
Probability 40%
Odds 2.23
Show model details
Implied probability 44.8%
Bet quality Low
Asian Handicap 2 markets
✓ AH Away 0
Probability 30%
Odds 3.23
Show model details
Implied probability 31%
Bet quality Low
✓ AH Home 0 Best in group
Probability 47%
Odds 1.38
Show model details
Implied probability 72.5%
Bet quality Medium
Other Markets 2 markets
✓ Double Chance X2
Probability 56%
Odds 2.04
Show model details
Implied probability 49%
Bet quality Medium
✓ Double Chance 1X Top pick
Probability 70%
Odds 1.26
Show model details
Implied probability 79.4%
Bet quality High

Predictions are model estimates based on data, not guaranteed outcomes. 18+ — please play responsibly.

Value pick of the night · Double Chance X2
DOR – VIL @ 2.04
+14.0%
Edge
Forecast →