Bayer Leverkusen won 1–0 away at Benfica. At half-time it was 0–0.
On the balance of chances, the hosts held the expected-goals edge, 1.42 to 0.74. In attack, the hosts carried the greater threat — 21 shots to 7, 6 on target. From set pieces, the hosts won the corner count, 6 to 0. At the back, the visitors leaned on their goalkeeper for 5 saves. For discipline, the referee produced 6 yellow cards.
Model audit for this match: of 20 graded markets, 8 landed and 12 missed, for a net -3.86 units (Brier 0.253).
| Market | Odds | Closed | AI | Result | P/L · 1u | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| AH Away 0 | 2.63 | — | 41% | Cashed | +1.63 | Cashed |
| Away Win | 3.57 | — | 30% | Cashed | +2.57 | Cashed |
| Draw | 3.86 | — | 27% | Lost | −1.00 | Miss |
| Double Chance X2 | 1.81 | — | 57% | Cashed | +0.81 | Cashed |
| Double Chance 1X | 1.36 | — | 70% | Lost | −1.00 | Miss |
| BTTS No | 2.39 | — | 42% | Cashed | +1.39 | Cashed |
| Under 2.5 | 2.22 | — | 45% | Cashed | +1.22 | Cashed |
| Over 2.5 | 1.77 | — | 55% | Lost | −1.00 | Miss |
| Under 3.5 | 1.47 | — | 66% | Cashed | +0.47 | Cashed |
| Over 0.5 | 1.04 | — | 92% | Cashed | +0.04 | Cashed |
| Over 3.5 | 2.76 | — | 34% | Lost | −1.00 | Miss |
| BTTS Yes | 1.62 | — | 58% | Lost | −1.00 | Miss |
| Home Win | 2.13 | — | 43% | Lost | −1.00 | Miss |
| AH Home 0 | 1.54 | — | 59% | Lost | −1.00 | Miss |
| Over 1.5 | 1.22 | — | 72% | Lost | −1.00 | Miss |
| AH Home +2 | 1.01 | — | 97% | Cashed | +0.01 | Cashed |
| AH Home +1 | 1.12 | — | 90% | Lost | −1.00 | Miss |
| AH Home -1 | 3.03 | — | 24% | Lost | −1.00 | Miss |
| AH Home -2 | 6.90 | — | 10% | Lost | −1.00 | Miss |
| AH Away -1 | 1.42 | — | 18% | Lost | −1.00 | Miss |
| Total · 20 markets @ 1u each | — | — | — | 8 W · 12 L | −3.86u | −19% ROI |
